Week 6 picks

   I am soo bad at over/under. The Jets are bad? HOW?. The Browns, Panthers, Raiders, Titans and Patriots are bad, this I get. The Bills, 49ers and Bengals are not bad but are really struggling. I don't know what the Colts, Broncos, Giants and Cardinals are. The Rams and Dolphins are damaged goods. The Seahawks, Cowboys, Chargers, Jaguars and Saints are broken. The Bears and Commanders are a thing. The Packers, Ravens, Eagles and Texans are good but not as good as last year. The Vikings Lions, Falcons and Bucs are happy. The Steelers are chaos. That's it, no I did not forget the Chiefs.

Last week: 1-12 (8%)

Overall: 15-56 (21%)

Jaguars @ Bears (+1)    (U44.5)

   Its going to be though for the Bears, having some injuries at their secondary, still I will believe they can pull it off.

Cardinals (+5.5) @ Green Bay     (U47)

   "Good" Kyler Murray can keep this one close enough against "Bad" Jordan Love.

Browns @ Philadelphia (-8.5)    (O42.5)

   A healthy Eagles team will go against a banged up Browns secondary with poor QB play and no Nick Chubb.

Texans (-6.5) @ New England    (O37.5)

   The Texans will go without Nico Collins which will hurt, still the Patriots have struggled to protect their QB and plan to go with rookie Drake May, I don't see a big change coming soon.

Commanders (+6.5) @ Baltimore    (O51.5)

   The Commanders are coming in hot and they might have to many points in their favor against a Ravens team that has struggled to close out games.

Buccaneers (-3.5) @ New Orleans    (U42)

   The Saints will go without David Carr, so a rookie behind a injury plagued Oline does not bode well against a stout Bucs Dline with Vita Vea at point blank range.

Colts (+2.5) @ Tennessee    (O43)

   So who is going to QB for the Colts, it may not even matter at this point.

Chargers (-3) @ Denver    (O35.5)

   The Chargers conservative approach is what makes it hard to believe in them. Bo Nix is up and down which is no surprise given he is a rookie, still he should get a tough matchup against some nasty Chargers EDGE rushers.

Steelers (-3) @ Las Vegas    (U36.5)

   The Raiders will go with a new QB and the Steelers will have T.J. Watt hunting him down, that should do it.

Falcons (-6) @ Carolina    (O46.5)

   I do expect the Falcons to pop at offense and just pummel the Panthers defense. I don't expect the Panthers to make it close offensively.

Lions (-3) @ Dallas    (U52.5)

   The Cowboys are frauds, the Lions are legit.

Bengals (-3.5) @ NY Giants     (U47)

   How the Giants win games is beyond me, the Bengals are a good team just constantly shooting themselves in the foot, stop it already.

Bills (-2.5) @ NY Jets    (O41)

   These two teams are just a headache, the Jets are a better team led by someone that doesn't play to his potential, is he washed up? Maybe. Josh Allen and the Bills where bound to have a downgrade this year but have played themselves too often. Flip a coin.

W5vsPanthers: Successfully playing the role of bully

   Its good to know that the outcome of a game the Bears should win was a game dominated by both sides by them. It wasn't instantaneous but it got done, the Bears showed they can beat the weak no problem, they couldn't do this against the struggling Colts so consistency is the next step.

   The offense had a field day with the Panthers, even the most struggling player had a good day in this game. What I appreciate is that once they had a big lead, the offense didn't stop throwing the ball, giving Caleb Williams much needed reps in a live game against starters. The Oline gave us a decent running game and gave D'Andre Swift a chance to display his talent and give him more opportunities in the future, time will tell if this was a wake up call for this unit and can build from this against more stout Dlines.

Upside players: It was great to see the connection between Williams and DJ Moore. Bill Murray played angry, I liked that a lot.

Downside players: Its hard to point someone having a bad game, I could say that Keenan Allen still playing average is somewhat worrisome.

   The defense was solid, had some breaks with how some plays were executed poorly by the Panthers, still they played strong, hustled and stood firm in the red zone.

Upside players: Gervon Dexter is looking really good, along with Andrew Billings, they can really make the pass rush work along Montez Sweat even with subpar effort from the other EDGE position. Kevin Byard showed up in a positive way, he is making this secondary look elite. Jaquan Brisker is growing on me as a really good enforcer.

Downside players: The opposite side form Sweat is was very quiet this game.

   Next up is a far away home game in London against Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars who just won their first game las week, they have talent on the roster but are still finding the right formula to make it work. The Bears could beat this team but they will have to do it without Brisker and Tyrique Stevenson against a good Jaguars receiving core with rising star rookie Brian Thomas Jr., the Bears pass rush will have to be extra effective on this game if they want to help Williams and the offense not play catchup against a good Jaguars pass rush led by Josh Allen. Both Olines are going to play a big role on this game, both are shaky but have the RBs to punish either defense, although both have good LBs. Come to think of it, with the injuries to the Bears secondary, these teams are really similar right now, no home advantage and both coming out of a win, its very even, comes down to who has the hotter hand at QB, still think the Bears can come back with the win.

Week 5 picks

   Over/unders are still not my thing. The Bengals are no longer losers. The Jaguars are the only team to still not win. The Vikings sold their soul. The Jets and Eagles are still struggling. The Broncos are the new version of the 2011 Tim Tebow led team. Joe Flacco can still play, its amazing. Jayden Daniels WTF. The Dolphins and Browns are in deeeeeep trouble, same problem different reasons. The Chiefs won by ref ball I'm not sure but I'm sure.

Last week: 3-12 (20%)

Season overall: 14-44 (24%)

Jets @ Minnesota(-2.5)    (O41)

   The Jets haven't proven they can maintain an offense, on the other hand the Viking have done it on each game.

Panthers (+4) @Chicago     (U41)

   The Panthers are a totally different team with Andy Dalton leading, still dont think they win but keep it close.

Colts (+3) @ Jacksonville     (U45.5)

   Same thing with the Colts, Joe Flacco can distribute the ball better than Anthony Richardson, the Jaguars are lost with a banged up Trevor Lawrence.

Browns @ Washington (-3)    (U43.5)

   One more bad game by Deshaun Watson and its time to bring someone else on the field. Jayden Daniels is on fire.

Ravens @ Bengals (+2.5)    (U48.5)

   The Bengals might be back, the Ravens are sooo inconsistent.

Bills (+1) @ Houston    (O47)

   Both teams are showing some struggles to keep things under control, I just believe more in Josh Allen.

Dolphins (-1) @ New England    (U35.5)

   The Patriots are playing bad with a solid team and no QB, the Dolphins are playing bad with a great team and no QB. 

Raiders @ Denver (-3)    (U35.5)

   Who am I kidding I don't know, its hard playing in Denver.

Cardinals (+7) @ San Francisco    (O49)

   Kyler Murray makes this Cardinals team so enigmatic, they have the talent to beat even the 49ers but there's Murray to hold back the team or run over the opponent.

Packers @ Rams (+3)    (U48.5)

   I'm just going with the idea that Jordan Love is still broken and will struggle against the sneaky Rams.

Giants @ Seattle (-7)    (U42.5)

   The Giants without Malik Nabers is going to be interesting to know how bad this team is without him.

Cowboys (+2.5) @ Steelers     (U44)

   The Cowboys should win against a banged up Steelers defense, but its the Cowboys.

Saints @ Kansas City (-5.5)    (O43)

   You just cant say the Chiefs are going to lose, ever.

W4vsLAR: Taking what is given

    Last week against the Colts they let the game slip by playing worse than they did, this time around, the Bears did just enough to take advantage of the sloppiness of the opponent to capitalize a win, but also played a sloppy game themselves but not enough to make it impossible to come back from it. So, baby steps where taken, improvement none the less, that what many expect to see as the season continues.

   The offense struggled less, but the Oline made SOOO many penalties in the first half, it was pure pain. Losing Teven Jenkins is never a good sign, he adds one more to his injury history which does not bode well for a possible extension. Shane Waldron made a positive thing by playing Roschon Johnson more, if it wasn't for D'Andre Swift doing good things on this game, I would expect Johnson and Swift to share the snap count down the middle, but it was closer to 70/30 which at the end of the day it worked, just keep feeding Johnson. I cant imagine what Khalil Herbert did to disappear from the faze of the earth or what lingering injury he could be dealing with, but even Travis Homer got snaps when healthy, I don't get it. Caleb Williams is getting better, made a pair of great throws and took care of the football, solid performance, still needs to be in sink with his wideouts to get better results.

Upside players: Cole Kmet is showing up and is making a difference in this offense.

Downside players: Keenan Allen was there but didn't do much really, would be good to see more Tyler Scott just to see what he brings to the table. Once Ryan Bates and Kiran Amegadjie get healthy, I need to see what they got and push Colman Shelton and Matt Pryor to the bench.

   The defense did a solid job to maintain the game in reach for the offense to maintain the slim lead. The turnovers where so critical and limiting the Rams offense to field goals was key, the bend but don't break mentality of this defense was in full effect in this game. 

Upside players: Gonna place Tory Taylor here because his punts made a difference by pinning the Rams inside the 10 on three occasions, huge boost for the defense. Montez Sweat made his appearance with a big turnover to place the offense on Rams territory for the first 7 points, pivotal play. Gervon Dexter and Jaquan Brisker had a pair of splash plays to turn things around. 

Downside players: None

   Next up a visit from the Panthers led by vet Andy Dalton who helped this team turn things around by playing better offense in their last two games, still its another game that should be winnable for the Bear The defense has to put pressure on Dalton and it wont be that easy against a solid Oline and Dalton´s quick read and release . The Bears offense will have to play the ground game to take advantage of an injured Panthers front seven, if they fall behind to soon, its going to be a bit hard to go through the air against Jaycee Horn who Williams will have to be very aware of were he lines up.

Week 4 picks

 

   Last weeks predictions were close in some games but fell short. Teams are starting to struggle due to injuries like the Bucs, Dolphins and 49ers, others like the Rams just find ways to win despite of it. Browns and Jaguars are in for a long season as bad teams, Bengals haven't won a game yet and that was not expected. Panthers turn things around in a big way with their QB switch. The Vikings are legit. The Commanders and Jayden Daniels are on the map now. Chiefs still needing the refs to bail them.

Last week: 3-12 (20%)

Season overall: 11-32 (25%)

Bengals (-4.5) @ Carolina     (O47)

   Andy Dalton and the Panthers looks dominant last week, but the Bengals have to play in win now mode and have the team to do it.

Broncos (+8) @ NY Jets    (O39.5)

   The Jets and Broncos seem to have found their rhythm, Ill take the points.

Saints @ Atlanta (-2.5)    (O41)

   The Saints looks somewhat shell shocked against the Eagles, the Falcons took the champs head on and could have one if not for ref ball.

Steelers (-2) @ Indianapolis    (U40)

   The Colts have shown a poor offense and the Steelers are the best defensive unit in the league.

Vikings (+3) @ Green Bay    (U44.5)

   Good divisional matchup, I'm taking the Vikings points and their defense to make this one close.

Rams (+3) @ Chicago    (U40.5)

   I don't understand how the Rams are underdogs when coming out of a win against the 49ers, if all the Bears should be the underdogs coming off a game they could have or should have won against a bad Colts team.

Jacksonville @ Houston (-6)    (U44.5)

   The Jaguars have a long ways to go to be trusted with a win against good competition.

Eagles (-1) @ Tampa Bay    (O42)

   The Bucs are still too banged up to count on. The Eagles are likely to get A.J. Brown back and they sorely miss him.

Commanders (+.3.5) @ Arizona    (O49)

   Clash of mobile QBs and average defenses, going with the points.

Patriots @ San Francisco (-10)    (U40.5)

   the 49ers need to bounce back and this game is as good as any against a Patriots team that has an Oline problem.

Browns @ Las Vegas (+2.5)    (U36.5)

   I don't know if I wanna trust the Raiders to win it but the Browns are just not good and that is so weird with the roster they have, they really need Nick Chubb back pronto.

Chiefs (-7) @ LA Chargers     (O41.5)

   The Chargers have a banged up Justin Herbert and the Chiefs are getting all the calls.

Bills @ Baltimore (-2.5)    (O46.5)

   I don't know what's wrong with the Ravens, but if they don't pull the win this week, even against a tough Bills team, I might consider thinking the Ravens are in for a rebuild.

Titans (+2.5) @ Miami    (U37)

   This is the Titans chance to point their team in the right direction with a win against a Dolphins team that is missing its QB and no real backup choice.

Seahawks (+3.5) @ Detroit    (U46.5)

   This looks like its going to be a really good game, the Seahawks defense has played very good and the Lions have struggled to be consistent on both sides of the ball.

W3@IND: Crack of light beyond the muddy Oline

    The Bears let a win slip from their grasp, Anthony Richardson made enough bad plays to give the win wrapped in a bow and the Bears didn't want it. The Bears Oline is a problem once more, the coaches need to figure something out because they are close of ruining yet another QB.

   The offense struggled, again, more at running than passing, the Oline will be hard to fix if its a personnel issue, it might be. Want they can try is by making a switch at RB, push DeAndre Swift to backup duties and place Khalil Herbert in changer with Roschon Johnson as a change of pace and 3rd down back, Swift has done too little to consider keep feeding him the ball. Caleb Williams is continuing to make rookie mistakes but he was forced to throw the ball more than 50 times against the Colts which was crazy, but did show progress by doing so and connected with Rome Odunze and Cole Kmet for scores and threw very precise passes in the process, building from this would be great but an existing running attack would be better when talking about throwing so many passes behind an offense that cant run the ball so the defense knows you have to pass and headhunts your QB.

Upside players: Roschon Johnson helped plenty by moving the ball on the grounds with punishing yards, help block and even catching passes.

Downside players: I really don't know who from the OLine is doing worse.

   The defense had the Colts under control in the first half but started struggling stropping the run in the second half and all went downhill from there. They managed to halt the Colts to 3 scores but the Colts offense was really not playing that well. Needles to say I has a bit disappointed by them last week. Hope they can bounce back from this one.

Upside players: Jack Sanborn can really do his role of punishing run stuffing LB. 

Downside players: I getting a bit concerned about Montez Sweat, I haven't really seen him make plays, maybe there aren't going his way too much but hi is the guy for the defense and not showing up is not good.

   Next the Bears receive the very dangerous Rams and Matthew Stafford who are coming off a very impressive win against the 49ers, even when they have a banged up roster, they manage to pull out improbable wins, needles to say its going to be hell for the Bears to win this one, the defense will have to pressure Stafford more often than not, find answers to slow down the run, still the offense for the Bears are the real challenge and its all up to them to figure out how to start running the ball effectively.

Week 3 picks

   OK I had a good week, 2 tied scores I will just eliminate no win nor loss. The Dolphins are in trouble, I expect Tua to retire for his own good. Holy hell, I expected the Vikings to not suck but didn't expect them to be good, and where did this Cardinals team come from?. I forgot I suspected the Cowboys to be not that good. The NFC South are a bunch of showoffs, Panthers are soooo screwed.  

Last week: 5-8 (38%)

Season: 8-20 (28%)

Chargers  @ Pittsburgh (-2.5)   (U35)

 With Justin Herbert hurt, its going to be tough for the Chargers to beat the Steelers defense.

Eagles @ New Orleans (-3)    (O49.5)

   The Saints look like a better team than the Eagles right now, A.J. Brown is sorely missed.

Giants (+6.5) @ Cleveland    (O38.5)

   The Browns Oline is banged up, the Giants Dline is their strenght and they only lost last week because they didnt have a kicker the whole game, the Browns offense is still a mistery.

Packers (+3) @ Tennessee    (U37)

   The Packers and Titans defenses are good, if Will Levis keeps playing like the last two games, I expect same results.

Texans @ Minnesota (+1.5)   (O46)

   The Vikings are playing very well and I do see them putting up a fight at home against a Texans team that hasn't looked elite yet.

Bears (+1) @ Indianapolis    (U44)

   If there's a game I see the Bears building on is this one, the Colts are a banged up at defense and Anthony Richardson is still looking to be an accurate passer.

Broncos @ Tampa Bay (-6)   (U41)

   This one should be Bucs all the way if not for injuries all over their roster, but I haven't seen enough of the Broncos to believe they can manage a win.

Dolphins @ Seattle (-4.5)    (U42)

The Dolphins will start their backup QB while Seattle is growing as a team game by game.

Panthers @ Las Vegas (-6)    (U40)

   The change at QB by the Panthers might mitigate the mistakes and play a more reserve game plan, still the Raiders have played good enough to beat a bad coached team.

Lions @ Arizona (+3)    (O51.5)

   The Cardinals impressed me last week, they looked so explosive, if they can show that type of game again, the Lions are in trouble, hell the whole NFL is in trouble.

49ers (-6) @ LAR    (U43.5)

   The 49ers got humbled last week, the Rams are hurt especially at WR. 

Ravens (-1) @ Dallas    (O47.5)

   The Cowboys showed who I thought they were, the Ravens need this game to bounce back on track.

Chiefs (-3) @ Atlanta    (O46.5)

   Atlanta showed they can win, still too early to believe they can take the champs.

Jaguars @ Buffalo (-5)    (U45.5)

   The Jaguars look lost, its another game the Bills can take advantage on at home to build on.

Commanders @ Cincinnati (-7.5)    (U47)

   The Commanders are not a good team yet and still are living growing pains, the Bengals will come out angry from last weeks loss.