W9 picks

  Not a good week, still a lot of close games against the spread, good job by Vegas. The Dolphins, Eagles, Browns and Jets are back, sort of. The Vikings and Texans are crashing. Panthers, Giants. Raiders and Titans are looking at QB college film. The Bengals need to find answers quick. The Colts have a problem and a solution at the same time. On to next week.

Last week: 2-13 (13%)

Season overall: 24-89 (21%)

Chargers (-1) @ Cleveland    (O42.5)

   Pretty similar teams if you ask me, Browns banged up secondary gives me the nod to the Chargers.

Patriots (+3) @ Tennessee    (U38.5)

   The Titans are lost at this point, the Patriots still look they want to find themselves.

Broncos (+9.5) @ Baltimore     (U46.5)

   The Ravens still struggle to close games, the Broncos are feisty.

Cowboys @ Atlanta (-3)    (O52)

   Kirk Cousins is starting to cook, the Cowboys just... no.

Dolphins @ Buffalo (-6)    (U49.5)

   I like the new Bills offense. The Dolphins are lucky it's still not snowing.

Saints (-7) @ Panthers    (U43.5)

   Derek Carr is back, Saints are back. Bryce Young is back, yikes.

Commanders (-4) @ NY Giants    (O44)

   The Giants cant get out of their own way.

Raiders (+7) @ Cincinnati    (O45)

   The Bengals are mega lost.

Bears (+2) @ Arizona     (O44.5)

   I'm still optimistic, I don't know how I do it.

Jaguars @ Philadelphia (-7.5)    (O46)

   The Eagles finally are looking scary as the roster shows they should be.

Lions @ Green Bay (+2.5)    (O47.5)

  Jinx dammit.

Rams (-1.5) @ Seattle    (U48)

   D.K. Metcalf is really important to the Seahawks offense. 

Colts (+5.5) @ Minnesota    (O47)

   Lord and savior joe Flacco will play.

Buccaneers @ Kansas City (-9)    (O45.5)

   The Bucs are just a hospital dressed as a football team. The Chiefs don't usually cover, I don't know why.

W8@WASH: Slipping

    While the Bears had no reason to be winning the game against the Commanders based on the way they played the first 3 quarters of the game, if by any reasons whatsoever they place themselves to be able to win a game, be it because you got lucky or the other team just had a meltdown, it doesn't matter how ugly a win is, is it's still a win, you take it, survive the day and move on. The Bears had the game won until they didn't, their defense kept it close, the offense did the bear minimum and they only had to survive the last 25 second of the game, they couldn't. Its onto the next game regardless while still searching to get better.

   The offense had a bad day, let's call it that, the Oline is a rollercoaster of an experience this season, it just fluctuates from bad to good on each snap, there was a lot of bad in this game and the injuries to this group will just make things worse. Caleb Williams struggled mightily, if he wasn't running for his life he was not finding open receivers or not making the decision to throw it, his conservative play and lack of deep ball accuracy is something to monitor. The run game existed in spurts which was what kept the offense alive most of the game, it's just so frustrating not knowing why all the snaps go to D'Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson is such a good change of pace and 3rd down back and the decision to not get Khalil Herbert involved whatsoever is such a head scratcher. 

Upside players: Rome Odunze is giving glimpses of a true WR1 for the future. 

Downside players: Bad day in general for the entire offense but Kiran Amegadjie really had his welcome to the NFL moments in this game.

   The defense did what it has been doing all season in a very impressive consistent manner, even with Kyler Gordon and Jaquan Brisket out the secondary still manages to limit the big blows, all the criticism going Tyrique Stevenson's way is not all deserved, he is a good corner with a big attitude, does he need to step it up? Yes. Will he? I believe he will, I expect him to lower his attitude a notch but still be him and his play is good enough to be a starter in the league and has been an important part of this defense success. It's not hard to look at this defense and see that it's run by the cover team, there is a worrisome lack of pressure not generated by the front four. with Montez Sweat dealing with an injury, it's going to ask the backs to do even more to make due.

Upside players: Elijah Hicks and Josh Blackwell are doing a fine job filling in for Brisker and Gordon.

Downside players: Stevenson will get better.

   Next up is a trip to the desert of Arizona, this will be another good test for the Bears, the Cardinals can be a good team but the have struggled to make it all work consistently, the Bears can pressure this team to a loss if they can execute which is something they have struggled to do on offense, now with both sides of the ball dealing with injuries, all points that it's going to be another one of those nail biting Bears game the fans are used to.

W6vsJaguars: Momentum

    The Bears managed to look better as a team coming back from London with the win against a Jaguars team that could have made the scoreboard look no so much as a blowout but they haven't been able to play a clean game yet. The Bears on the other hand have manage to capitalize from their opponents mistakes, this has given them the opportunities they need to get their offense rolling and clean up Shane Waldron's offense to better adjust to the players strengths.

   The offense still  struggling at the beginning of the game and start clicking in the second quarter on these last games, much of the scoring opportunities come by turnovers or good field position thanks to the defense and special teams but still, the offense is finishing by scoring more touchdowns than field goals or just not going 3 and out as so often happened on past seasons. The existence of a run game has been so pivotal to the success that the offense has gotten, hopefully the Oline will gel more with every game they play, but its a bit too early to tell when the games played until now have not been against balanced teams, still the Jaguars do have a decent group of defensive players, its just that they haven't been playing to expectation.

Upside players: D'Andre Swift has been playing much better, whether its the improved Oline play or the way Waldron has drawn his use. Caleb Williams was impressive on this game, his pocket presence and calm inside the pocket was outstanding on this game.

Downside players: Cheating a bit, Waldron still has work to do, just as he did with Roschon Johnson and Swifts snaps and plays changed to improve the run game, he needs to put his wideouts in the best situation possible get them to block and run the routes they best perform.

   The defense, even without Jaquan Brisker, Kyler Gordon and Tyrique Stevenson, played good enough defense to shut down the Jaguars, they did get help from the Jaguars receivers by droping a pair of touchdown passes, still they Bears defense keeps getting the much appreciated turnovers that help their offense to polish their craft. I cant repeat this enough, this defense is so bend but don't break.

Upside players: Gervon Dexter has been an important piece in this Dline to be an all around player to help the run and put much needed pressure when this does not come from the edges. Kevin Byard has been a silent assassin, he isn't shown much but when he does show up it doesn't end well for offenses.

Downside player: Still need more help on the opposite side of Montez Sweat.

   After the Bears bye, they head to Washington who are as another team that is on the rise, their offense has shown more explosiveness than the Bears, but the Commanders defense has been sus whereas the Bears has been their strength. It has everything to be an entertaining game.

Week 8 picks

   Average week, so another bad one. The Saints really took a rollercoaster dive. The Vikings are looking to stabilize as an average team as expected at the beginning of the season. Bills have an offense again? The Falcons and Jets make me sick. The Browns might get better on addition by subtraction, and Nick Chubb. Bucs and 49ers are a hospital now. On to next week.

Last week: 3-11 (21%)

Season overall: 22-76 (22%)

Jets @ New England (+7)    (U41)

   The Jets should be winning often but they aren't. The Patriots are in a rebuild and playing bad defense which should be their strength, the Jets should be able to run all over them. I'm led by my hatred and disgust for the Jets and picking the point.

Packers (-3.5) @ Jacksonville     (O49)

   Hurray the Jags won a game, would be great if they can make it a streak, but it probably wont happen.

Cardinals (+4) @ Miami     (U46.5)

   Tua Tagovailoa is back, I fear for him. Will that be enough against Good/Bad Kyler Murray? Ill take the points.

Tennessee @ Detroit (-12)    (O45)

   Oh good heavens the massacre.

Falcons (-1.5) @ Tampa Bay     (U46.5)

   The Falcons are headed to be the biggest disappointment of this season, the Bucs are so injured and still I don't feel 100% trusting the Falcons enough to win this game, but I am.

Eagles @ Cincinnati (-2.5)    (O47.5)

   Can the Bengals stop being so average? What the hell happened to both these teams in general?

Ravens (+7.5) @ Cleveland     (U44.5)

   The Ravens look like they want to be the Chiefs, make the bare minimum to win. Jameis Winston is really going to right this ship? I don't think so, I'm scared for nick Chubb.

Colts (+5) @ Houston     (O45)

   The Colts are getting healthier, but Anthony Richardson is still not playing good enough. The Texans are still stuck in second gear.

Saints (+7)  @ LA Chargers     (U41)

   The Saints are getting players back and the Chargers are soooo boring.

Bills (+3) @ Seattle     (O45)

   The Bills can score lots of point again. The Seahawks without D.K. Metcalf is not going to be pretty.

Chiefs (+8.5) @ Las Vegas     (U42)

   Can the Raiders upset the Chiefs again? No.

Bears (+1) @ Washington     (O46)

   This can be the game of the week, but its not two juggernauts going head to head, its just two good teams on the rise. I'm going homer on this one.

Panthers @ Denver (-11)    (U41)

   My only question is if the Broncos are able to score tons of pints again like las week. It should be possible against a  Panthers team with no answers.

Cowboys @ San Francisco (-5)    (O47)

   The Cowboys are disappointing but I suspected them to be not good this year so its not a big surprise for me. The 49ers are disappointing but really injured as well, still good teams find ways to win.

Giants @ Pittsburgh (-6)    (U36.5)

   The Giants are dropping to levels of bad I expected them to reach. The Steelers are a team that fights so hard not to be bad that they manage to achieve it often than not.

Week 7 picks

   Still and forever bad at over/under. No real surprises last week, Eagles vs Browns was a pain to watch, Ravens vs Commanders was as advertised, teams are showing their true colors at this stage of the season. This week is a THOUGH one to predict, lots of games where teams go versus another team that are at a vey similar level of play. On to next week.

Last week: 4-9 (30%)

Overall: 19-65 (22%)

Patriots (+6.5) @ Jacksonville.    (O42)

   I like the chances of Drake May stunning this struggling Jaguars team, they will probably not win but I believe it should be a close one.

Texans @ Green Bay (-3)       (U48)

   The Texans are really banged up, Packers chances of taking this one are pretty good.

Titans @ Buffalo (-9.5)       (U41)

   The Bills might struggle a bit to score but there is no scenario where the Titans matches their offense against the Bills defense with Will Levis leading the charge.

Seahawks @ Atlanta (-3)       (O52)

   The Seahawks have plummeted due to scheme or/and injuries, the Cardinals need to snap out of it and take this opportunity to get back in the win column.

Bengals (-5.5) @ Cleveland       (U41.5)

   The Browns have owned the Bengals for some time now, I cant see the Bengals losing this game, their defense would have to play abysmal to let the Browns offense have a chance.

Eagles (-3) @ NY Giants       (U42.5)

   The Eagles are not what they used to be, their roster is a mirage of a good team. The Giants cant be relevant with Daniel Jones as the QB. Its going to be an ugly game no matter what.

Lions (+1.5) @ Minnesota        (U50.5)

   The Vikings seem to be banged up and should give the Lions a leg up, if only they could give it to Aidan Hutchinson.

Dolphins (+3) @ Indianapolis       (U43.5)

   I believed that Anthony Richardson would strive to be a good QB but its hard to do seeing him play this year. The Dolphins just need to limit the mistakes.

Raiders @ LA Rams (-7)       (O43.5)

   The Raiders will keep on fighting, but its an uphill battle. I still believe in the Rams potential.

Panthers @ Washington (-9.5)       (O51.5)

   The question is if the Commanders defense can stop the Panthers enough to cover. Why I very much think they can.

Chiefs (-1.5) @ San Francisco       (U47)

   You go with the Chiefs until the BS calms down, if it ever does.

Jets (-1.5) @ Pittsburgh       (U39)

   I'm going with the better roster overall, still both teams are a mess.

Ravens @ Tampa Bay (+3.5)        (O49.5)

   The Ravens might win but they struggle to win with dominance, I believe the Bucs at home will prove to be a tough opponent.

Chargers @ Arizona (+1.5)       (O44)

   We got bad Kyler Murray last week, can the Cardinal get good Kyler this week?

Week 6 picks

   I am soo bad at over/under. The Jets are bad? HOW?. The Browns, Panthers, Raiders, Titans and Patriots are bad, this I get. The Bills, 49ers and Bengals are not bad but are really struggling. I don't know what the Colts, Broncos, Giants and Cardinals are. The Rams and Dolphins are damaged goods. The Seahawks, Cowboys, Chargers, Jaguars and Saints are broken. The Bears and Commanders are a thing. The Packers, Ravens, Eagles and Texans are good but not as good as last year. The Vikings Lions, Falcons and Bucs are happy. The Steelers are chaos. That's it, no I did not forget the Chiefs.

Last week: 1-12 (8%)

Overall: 15-56 (21%)

Jaguars @ Bears (+1)    (U44.5)

   Its going to be though for the Bears, having some injuries at their secondary, still I will believe they can pull it off.

Cardinals (+5.5) @ Green Bay     (U47)

   "Good" Kyler Murray can keep this one close enough against "Bad" Jordan Love.

Browns @ Philadelphia (-8.5)    (O42.5)

   A healthy Eagles team will go against a banged up Browns secondary with poor QB play and no Nick Chubb.

Texans (-6.5) @ New England    (O37.5)

   The Texans will go without Nico Collins which will hurt, still the Patriots have struggled to protect their QB and plan to go with rookie Drake May, I don't see a big change coming soon.

Commanders (+6.5) @ Baltimore    (O51.5)

   The Commanders are coming in hot and they might have to many points in their favor against a Ravens team that has struggled to close out games.

Buccaneers (-3.5) @ New Orleans    (U42)

   The Saints will go without David Carr, so a rookie behind a injury plagued Oline does not bode well against a stout Bucs Dline with Vita Vea at point blank range.

Colts (+2.5) @ Tennessee    (O43)

   So who is going to QB for the Colts, it may not even matter at this point.

Chargers (-3) @ Denver    (O35.5)

   The Chargers conservative approach is what makes it hard to believe in them. Bo Nix is up and down which is no surprise given he is a rookie, still he should get a tough matchup against some nasty Chargers EDGE rushers.

Steelers (-3) @ Las Vegas    (U36.5)

   The Raiders will go with a new QB and the Steelers will have T.J. Watt hunting him down, that should do it.

Falcons (-6) @ Carolina    (O46.5)

   I do expect the Falcons to pop at offense and just pummel the Panthers defense. I don't expect the Panthers to make it close offensively.

Lions (-3) @ Dallas    (U52.5)

   The Cowboys are frauds, the Lions are legit.

Bengals (-3.5) @ NY Giants     (U47)

   How the Giants win games is beyond me, the Bengals are a good team just constantly shooting themselves in the foot, stop it already.

Bills (-2.5) @ NY Jets    (O41)

   These two teams are just a headache, the Jets are a better team led by someone that doesn't play to his potential, is he washed up? Maybe. Josh Allen and the Bills where bound to have a downgrade this year but have played themselves too often. Flip a coin.

W5vsPanthers: Successfully playing the role of bully

   Its good to know that the outcome of a game the Bears should win was a game dominated by both sides by them. It wasn't instantaneous but it got done, the Bears showed they can beat the weak no problem, they couldn't do this against the struggling Colts so consistency is the next step.

   The offense had a field day with the Panthers, even the most struggling player had a good day in this game. What I appreciate is that once they had a big lead, the offense didn't stop throwing the ball, giving Caleb Williams much needed reps in a live game against starters. The Oline gave us a decent running game and gave D'Andre Swift a chance to display his talent and give him more opportunities in the future, time will tell if this was a wake up call for this unit and can build from this against more stout Dlines.

Upside players: It was great to see the connection between Williams and DJ Moore. Bill Murray played angry, I liked that a lot.

Downside players: Its hard to point someone having a bad game, I could say that Keenan Allen still playing average is somewhat worrisome.

   The defense was solid, had some breaks with how some plays were executed poorly by the Panthers, still they played strong, hustled and stood firm in the red zone.

Upside players: Gervon Dexter is looking really good, along with Andrew Billings, they can really make the pass rush work along Montez Sweat even with subpar effort from the other EDGE position. Kevin Byard showed up in a positive way, he is making this secondary look elite. Jaquan Brisker is growing on me as a really good enforcer.

Downside players: The opposite side form Sweat is was very quiet this game.

   Next up is a far away home game in London against Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars who just won their first game las week, they have talent on the roster but are still finding the right formula to make it work. The Bears could beat this team but they will have to do it without Brisker and Tyrique Stevenson against a good Jaguars receiving core with rising star rookie Brian Thomas Jr., the Bears pass rush will have to be extra effective on this game if they want to help Williams and the offense not play catchup against a good Jaguars pass rush led by Josh Allen. Both Olines are going to play a big role on this game, both are shaky but have the RBs to punish either defense, although both have good LBs. Come to think of it, with the injuries to the Bears secondary, these teams are really similar right now, no home advantage and both coming out of a win, its very even, comes down to who has the hotter hand at QB, still think the Bears can come back with the win.