Useless predictions: 2021 Week 8 picks

   Did ok for one more week how bout that? Don't know why I picked OVER on the NO/SEA game that was stupid. What the hell is happening to the Chiefs? The Bengals are a really good team, wonder when are they going to implode. The Lions and their freakin YOLO tactics are going to ruin a lot of games. On to next week.

W7 record: 5-7

Overall: 27-74 (27%)

Cincinnati (-11) at NY Jets    U43

   Flacco? Really? Bengals, all day.

Tennessee (+2.5) at Indianapolis    O51

   OK, here is the deal, I like the Titans but the Colts are getting back in shape injury wise, its going to be a tough game.

LA Rams (-16) at Houston    O46.5

   The Rams should pull this one off if they don't fall for the 4th down shenanigans again.

Pittsburg (+4.5)  at Cleveland    O43

   Cleveland is the better team but they are very hurt and led by a broken Mayfield, this might cost them to be able to cover.

Philadelphia  at Detroit (+3.5)   U48

   You cant trust neither of these teams, who wants it more? 

Miami at Buffalo (-14)    O48.5

   The Bills are too much for a Dolphins team that just hasn't grown enough and are visiting hostile environment.

San Francisco  at Chicago (+4)   U39.5

   Ok... lets try this again, the Bears should win this one going against a very banged up team.

Carolina (+3) at Atlanta     O46.5

   The Falcons have shown they have offensive talent but they still struggle to win games because of their defense and because they are still the Falcons.

New England at LA Chargers (-4.5)    O49.5

   The Patriots have found a way to put points on the board, can their expensive defense stop the Chargers offense? I would think not.

Jacksonville (+3.5) at Seattle     U44.5

   Its time for my underdog pick of the day, don't trust Geno so I'm giving the rookie QB a chance to pull the win.

Tampa Bay (-4.5) at New Orleans    U48.5

   Bucs by 5? Why? 

Washington (+3) at Denver     U44.5

   I don't get why the Broncos are favored in this one, The Football team isn't the most consistent team but they at least show they have a team.

Dallas  at Minnesota (+3)   O51.5

   This one should be a good game, the Vikings play it close to the chest every game, might just get enough to cover.

NY Giants at Kansas City (-10)    O52

   Can the Chiefs get so bad to lose to the Giants? this is going to be my Monday night? sigh.

W7@TB: Fed up

   Didn't expect a blowout of that proportion but the Bears got their behinds handed to them by the Buccaneers, the loss was expected but the result was, well, really not THAT bad as the score makes it look. Either way, Matt Nagy and the whole offensive regime has to go, like right now wouldn't be THAT bad.

   For starters, the offense ran the ball extremely well with Khalil Herbert getting almos all of the workload breaking the 100 yard barrier on the ground plus change on the air. The problem wasn't even that Fields and the offense couldn't move the ball, its just that they got bit by the turnover bug way to hard that ultimately cost them posible scoring drives. The first recovered fumble by Fields was just bad communication all around from the play they picked to not redirecting assignments, the two lost fumbles where just stupidity at its fines, once more the coaches had the brilliant idea to call obvious pass plays while letting their number five emergency swing tackle who had no practice the whole week cover 2019 sack leader Shaq Barrett and pro bowler Jason Pierre-Paul... WHY?! Why take the chance? why think it will all go well? why put your franchise QB at a potential risk? Are these Nagy's WHYS?! He can take them home along with his offensive personnel and boring scheme that Andy Dalton has played for his whole career behind his ex coach Bill Lazor, no wonder Nagy was so patient getting Fields in when you got everything placed for the average veteran QB, it all makes sense but at the same time it doesn't, Dalton gives the best shot to play a good offense (not necessarily win because of it) on game day because of the coaches and system established on the team, this obviously would give time for Fields to be on the bench and learn BUT what was he going to learn? the boring offense? The "pre snap defense evaluation pick your guy and hope for the best" offense? The "it doesn't matter if our Oline crumbles because we don't max protect send 5 hitches get the ball away in two seconds or you die" offense?  The "if you aren't good enough to read properly and you pick the wrong guy just throw it away, hope a defender slipped or run for your life" offense? The "I know you didn't play this kind of offense at college but your going to learn it here and like it" offense? The "welp our guy got hurt time to see if you learned enough I DONT CARE IM NOT GOING TO CHANGE ANYTHING FOR YOU" OFFENSE? I'm obviously no formation expert but its obviously NOT WORKING, ok I'm done. Fields had a bad game and threw 3 picks, one he threw it too high for Mooney but it hit both of his hands so its questionable, the other two were bad placed balls and the deep one to Allen Robinson was gut wrenching, to see a bad deep ball from Fields when that was advertised as his strength just made me feel sick for a second but its still too early to judge him behind a very bad offensive structure.

Upside players: there's not much to go around here besides the obvious, Khalil Herbert slashed through one of, if not, the toughest front sevens in the league behind an imbalances Oline. Honorable mentions to James Daniels and Jason Peters for just being solid players on the field and off the field Peters gives A+ effort by giving Bears fans some news to feel good about this week for a change.

Downside players: Darnell Mooney had a bad game, still young and hopefully will get better because of it. Sam Mustipher and Cody Whitehair are still struggling to anchor the middle, its time for change.  

   The defense had no chance but kudos to them for fighting till the bitter end, they got steamed rolled via the run game making Tom Brady's job easier, the DLine really isn't the same with out Akiem Hicks. The pass rush failed miserably, they rarely even touched Brady enough to make him uncomfortable, the result could have been even worse but Brady left points on the field with some bad red zone throws. Missing Robert Quinn and with Khalil Mack nursing an injury and trying to fight through it doesn't surprise me that the rush failed, Trevis Gipson was the closes to get to Brady but he isn't there yet and should have been the one that helped the others get to the QB but for some reason I'm still missing to see why the interior of the DL is failing to get pressure, maybe they were just to worried about the run and the heavy numbers the Bucs were using at the line of scrimmage, they obviously wanted to run and maybe where hiding the plays too well. 

Upside players: DeAndre Houston-Carson looked pretty good filling in at SS, made some good tackles and played even better covering receivers, might make Sean Desai think twice before plugging Tashaun Gipson back in when he is healthy. 

Downside players: The desperation is spreading and it took a toll on Bilal Nichols when he lost his cool and ended punching a Bucs defender getting himself ejected from the game, I cant blame them for feeling frustrated when they aren't getting no help from their offense but it can not reach this level where they take it out after the whistle has blown, keep it for the next play.

   Next up, the 49ers travel to Chicago in what should be a winnable game for the Bears, although they will still be somewhat limited on defense with Mack potentially not playing and Quinn not yet out of COVID protocol, Hicks is practicing but a groin injury doesn't fade away so easily and it could get worse when you re-injure it like he did at the Packers game. Honestly I wouldn't be opposed to the decision to place Mack on IR and get him rested until after the BYE week, I would even consider placing Hicks as well, the Bears have to start performing at offense if they want to be relevant or just for the sake of getting their young guys better and taking some of the load off the defense. Fields has commented he will be focusing on improving his communication with his receiver which is on point something they are in desperate need. This next game is a very good stepping stone to get things moving in the right direction offensively but again, like a broken record, things need to change more than they have, the Oline needs to be reshuffled to relieve Mustipher from his duties and go to the bench as a backup where he is needed and try Whitehair or Daniels at center with Alex Bars at G although Germain Ifedi or returning T Larry Borom would have to be healthy enough to play RT for this idea to have a chance or just go with Elijah Wilkinson if available or Lachavious Simmons with practice just to get the idea rolling, I prefer to go with this rather to just keep going with the same decaying formula, this season is about knowing how to get better and its not going to get figured out staying the same and making the same mistakes.

Useless predictions: 2021 Week 7 picks

   Last week was not too shabby, managed a decent record but still missed on some games because I still believe in defenses to make the under, not too many surprises though, the Chargers getting the snot beat out of them was not expected, Lions, Giants and Texans reaching an all time low, the Cowboys giving me a heart attack because who knows what the Patriots are  and the Titans clawing for the win against the Bills was the close game everyone didn't know they wanted. This week looks tough with teams matching up with similar talent or the lines of good teams against bad ones just being absurd.

W6 record: 5-8

Overall: 22-67 (25%)

Kansas City (-4.5) at Tennessee    O57.5

   The Chiefs defense has struggled mightily and can continue against Henry and the Titans, the Chiefs are getting DL help back while the Titans are still banged up at defense, The Chiefs will need Mahomes to score points and it should still be his speciality.

Washington at Green Bay (-8)   U48.5

   I don't trust the Football Team to make noise against Rodgers and the Packers when they got their on OL injuries to deal with.

Cincinnati (+6.5) at Baltimore     O46.5

   Every week the question is if Lamar Jackson can come up with the win against a good team, he just might do it this week as well but will be close.

Atlanta (-2.5) at Miami    O47.5

   The Dolphins might have some internal issues with their QB being rumored to be in the trading block, going to trust the Falcons offense and see if they can piece it together this week.

Carolina (-3) at NY Giants    U43

   The Giants are really bangged up on offense, might be just enough for he Panthers to take advantage and get the win.

NY Jets at New England (-7)    O42.5

   I don't know if the Patriots can separate themselves from the Jets on the scoreboard but the Jets havent been looking good and there's nothing telling me that is going to change.

Philadelphia at Las Vegas (-3)    O48.5

   Very similar teams going against each other but I believe the Raiders are the team to beat.

Detroit at LA Rams (-16)    U50.5

   The Lions are that bad huh? Will Campbells words make Goff amp his game up? I'm not betting on it.

Houston at Arizona (-17.5)    U47.5

   Yeah those are the Texans I was talking about.

Chicago (+12.5) at Tampa Bay     U47

   Yep I'm going full homer on this one, not saying the Bears are going to win, just not losing by that much with the Bucs having Gronk and Brown out for this one.

Indianapolis (+4) at San Francisco    U44

   The Colts have battled hard on every game while the 49ers have left a lot of questions, taking the points.

New Orleans (-4.5) at Seattle    O42.5

   The Seahawks are just not the same team without Wilson.

W6vsREFS: Still paying rent

    Aaron Rodgers remains a thorn in Bears history, has always been and it seems that he will continue to be until he retires, the only thing that made this game winnable was because the Bears made attempts to change things for the better and the Packers had enough injuries to consider it an advantage for the Bears who can still not be considered a good team, so when a game is officiated as bad as this one it does affect the end result, you can argue that there where bad plays called for both teams but what is not up to debate is that there were HORRIBLE calls against the Bears and it doesn't take many bad calls to bring down an unstable team playing a rookie QB led by a coach that cant get his head out of his ass. Still the Bears fought through adversity but ended coming short as usual, the end result was more of the same and it sucks and its tiring. But looking at the process, the plays and players, there is something good to come away with even if it wasn't the win that Bears fans so much wanted against this team and its QB.

   The offense got their shoe laces tide together when that offside wasn't called for a free play, making Justin Fields get picked when he threw the ball deep to Allen Robinson who in two occasions stopped his route instead of going to the end zone, almost ending in interceptions on both plays. They continued to stumble after that until the 4th quarter where they managed to score once more since their first drive, the game was close thanks in great part because of their defense of course but ultimately couldn't keep up and the offense AGAIN couldn't do enough for a comeback. So as I said, it ended being more of the same in a nutshell, but looking closely there were things that can be salvaged. The Bears left point in the field, the penalties and stupidity by the refs all mixed up in this game were in part the reason why they couldn't capitalize, putting all that aside they managed often to move the ball across midfield and had a chance to make enough FGs to tie or even win the game but three things failed on offense, the IOL, the play calling and Fields. I'm having problems trusting Sam Mustipher and Cody Whitehair including new plugged T Elijah Wilkinson, if they aren't getting beat by the big nasty NT and DTs they are just getting sloppy or not finishing their blocks, they are a big reason the Bears don't have splash plays because they don't give Fields enough time making him hesitate or don't sustain the blocks enough for the running back to get bigger gains, where did the nasty blocking from las week go? This brings me to the play calling specifically when trying to go deep, knowing that the Oline is getting blasted from the inside, how is Fields suppose to get time if you got your Olinemen are blocking one on one resulting in your G/C getting pushed and destroying the pocket? Why implement boot legs in PA plays and make them so long to develop if Fields is going to have a defender in his face when turning to look for the WR because his Olinemen are losing? This brings me to Fields which I don't blame him much, he doesn't NEED to change things but he HAS to understand and react to these problems, he cant continue to take sacks and get taken out of FG range. I feel like Fields is trying too hard not to make mistakes or force the ball to much, on the play where Robinson got open on the PA boot after Fields evaded the in coming defender it did look like he spotted Robinson and winded up for the throw but at the last second decided not to do it and ran, possibly because he got worried the defender he evaded was too close to him and might punch the ball lose. But then on his second long end zone throw it did look like a desperation pass where he THOUGHT Robinson was going to keep running deep but it wasn't the route so it looked like he was getting a bit desperate in the 3rd quarter and then calmed down for the 4th quarter TD drive, so maybe he didn't want to make difficult throws when it wasn't necessary with a close score in a big game. These are things that I presume he is experiencing and will learn from, the Oline and play calling are definitely not making it easy, what I would expect him to get better at short term watching this game is for him to keep calm and not forget to throw with a good base when there isn't any pressure around and to get rid of the ball when in FG range on a close game. 

Upside players: Khalil Herbert had a huge game and was part of the reason why Fields didn't need to pass the ball so much and that is always a good thing, I expect Herbert to debunk Darrel Williams as the RB2. Cole Kmet had his chance to catch the ball and didn't disappoint, he looks to be on his way to become the two dimensional player that the Bears envisioned him to be. 

Downside players: It might be to soon to judge Wilkinson but Mustipher and Whitehair need to step up and keep Fields clean and keep pushing in run blocking. Robinson and Fields need to be on the same page on broken plays, they can seriously do major damage when they are in sync.

   The defense held the Packers for most of the game but I expected them to have the running game more in control with all of their starting players on the field, but once Aaron Jones reached the second level and Roquan Smith was out of the picture there was no stopping Jones to gain huge gains making Rodgers job less complicated. I do believe that Jaylon Johnson is a good CB and that it was a good idea to let him follow Davante Adams all around the field, but you can expect him to do it by himself all day especially at the end of the game where Johnson already was beaten badly by Adams when lining as a slot receiver, if you aren't blitzing Rodgers then double team or bracket Adams right?  It was a difficult game for the defense but they could of had a better game especially if they managed to stop Green Bays on their last TD score.

Upside players: Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn are trying their best and are getting results, still they need some help from the middle guys. 

Downside players: There wasn't a player on defense that had a worst day than Tashaun Gipson, everybody is blaming Eddie Jackson for bad tackling but if someone is going to get heat for not making a tackle is the guy playing SS, Gipson missed so many important tackles that resulted in huge gains and even a TD, if he was hurt which maybe was the case and why Marquee Christian was playing snaps with Deon Bush also hurt, then I can understand. Mario Edwards and Jaylon Johnson didn't have a bad game but showed poor attitude, Edwards needs to cool down and stop hurting the Bears because he is continuing to fail at handling his temper when the other teams start taunting him (oh yeah which should be PENALTIES AGAINST THE OTHER TEAM), on the play where Johnson gets beat by Adams in the slot on the Packers last drive where Jackson shows his inability to take people down, Johnson displayed what I only can describe as nauseating hustle, he stopped running like three times in that play hesitating to make up his mind if he needed to finish the play himself, WHY?! JUST GO GET HIM! DO! NOT! STOP!

Side note, speaking of not stopping, I got no beef against WR coach Mike Furry, I like his intensity but he has GOT to make his players keep with the play and not stop to just watch the outcome, TEs included even if Mooney and Kmet seem to get it, it just makes the future look a little bit brighter.

   Next up for the Bears is a trip to Tampa Bay, boy is that going to be fun to watch. The Bucs may still be down some DB help but the Bears showed little against the Packers to warrant that they will take advantage of a depleted secondary. Even if Williams returns to help Herbert, the Bucs have one of the fiercest front sevens in the league which is not ideal for the Bears strength on offense. Defensively the Bears will go against Tom friking Brady with only Rob Gronkowski maybe missing this one, still its going to be really difficult to slow this team down, they managed to do it somehow last year, that would be a major surprise if they somehow pull it again probably without Akiem Hicks and whoever can play SS. Still its a game the Bears will not be favored to win, the worse that can happen is if it turns out to be another Browns game which wouldn't help at all with Fields growth, this one may be too tough to watch.

Useless predictions: 2021 Week 6 picks

 

   Lesson learned, 

- OVER is way more probable than UNDER.

- you can't trust the Jets more than once a month.

- Texans, Panthers, Saints and the Football team are teams I don't understand, who are you and what's with the mood swings?

- The Lions and Vikings are cursed, ties are not an option.

   Bengals I hate you for not taking advantage and let the Packers get away with it. The Broncos and Raiders got exposed and were shown to be average teams on the flip side the Chargers and Cardinals are creating momentum. On to next week.

W5 record: 2-13

Overall: 17-59 (22%)

Miami at Jacksonville (+3)   U47

   Is it a sin for the NFL to TRY and program an international match between teams that have high possibilities to be good? No team has a clear advantage, the Jaguars have a promising rookie struggling to put his team on his shoulders and the Dolphins are getting back Tua which is a better option than Brissett but it doesn't drastically tip the scale in their favor, Xavier Howard not playing is the only reason I will side with the Jags and their favored points.

Minnesota (-2.5) at Carolina    O46

   The VIkings have played hard on every game they have played but keep struggling to win even against iffy competition, the same is happening to the Panthers lately with declining play from the defenece and Sam Darnold, with McCaffrey on IR I will side with the Vikings.

LA Chargers (+2.5) at Baltimore    O52

   Two hot teams with even hotter QBs that have played their hearts out and keep getting better, I was impressed on the way the Ravens came from behind to beat the Colts but was it because Indianapolis played it safe and paid the price? Did they give Jackson too much space? I will pick the Chargers offense to get it done but it would surprise me to see Jackson do it again this week.

Cincinnati (-3.5) at Detroit    U47.5

   How will the Lions react to their coach opening up with the media last week? Will it create the spark they are missing to achieve their first win? I'm not keeping my hopes up, gonna go with the more steady and balanced team.

LA Rams (-8) at NY Giants    O48.5

   The Giants are down their star RB and Golladay, expecting too much of Daniel Jones who got rocked last week, give me the Rams controlling this game start to finish.

Kansas City (-7) at Washington    O55

   I trust the Chifes beating an average team as the Football Team, more so when they have their backs against the wall.

Houston (+10) at Indianapolis     O43.5

   The Colts are going to play without their kicker, the Texans are getting to many points. if they get some plays bounce their way like last week, they might just cover.

Green Bay at Chicago (+6)   O44.5

   The Packers are far from a perfect team with significant loses to their secondary, the Bears are gaining confidence, can Fields be the first rookie to hang an L on Rodgers? It's posible, so I will at least take the points.

Arizona (+3.5) at Cleveland     U49.5

   This will be a good game and it's hard to tell if it will be a shootout or a defensive struggle, the Browns will be down their star RB but they have Kareem Hunt to take the lead, the Cardinal are down their starting C which is not ideal and will probably rely on Murrays ability to scramble more than necessary. It all will come down to the play of Baker Mayfield who has played ok behind a heavy run attack, how will he fair this time around with limited run power?

Dallas (-3) at New England    U50.5

   Dak all day, he will be too much for Belichick.

Las Vegas (+4) at Denver     O44.5

   This is a though one, both are very inconsistent teams who are capable of playing good defense although very different styles, the Raiders I fell have a more potent offense than the Broncos but if Carr gets flustered by constant pressure he is bound to make some mistakes, so I guess I will go with the points and hope for the best.

Seattle at Pittsburgh (-5)    U42.5

   The Seahawks should be a very different team without Wilson in a bad way, gimme the old man to win this one.

Buffalo (-5.5) at Tennessee    O54

   Can Henry wear down the defense to give his team a chance? When the Bills are full throttle I don't think anyone can stop them.

W5@LV: Beating the bully in his turf

   The Raiders looked like they wanted the Bears to leave in body bags but managed to get out of there a bit banged up but with a solid win, they managed to hold the Raiders statistically potent offense to only nine points and showed they have a defense that can put pressure on the QB often, the offense still has lengths to go but it has shown improvement and most importantly their QB is limiting the mistakes that once placed this team in difficult situations.

   

   The offense was limited by the Raiders defense, but the run game shined on this game with the Oline and TEs playing aggressive football, they weren't perfect but when they got things right they punished the Raiders front seven, opening lanes for Damien Williams and rookie Khalil Herbert who ran for several big chunks, putting the offense in more comfortable 3rd down situations although some plays ended up being head scratchers and cost the Bears some momentum. Justin Fields needs to be more careful and take more care of himself, maybe part of the problem is that he is still trying to get comfortable with the game and his decision making, on the play where he got hit on the ribs he was trying to do too much with the spin move rather than just continue running forward or sliding, on the play where he hurt his knee he hesitated to throw a risky short pass or keep running, that hesitation cost him time to escape the pocket resulting in him getting hit from behind forcing him to plant his leg, I believe that his instincts will kick in faster with more playing time. Putting that aside, he continued to make plays, scoring his first TD pass and most importantly he is minimizing the turnovers, he might be taking baby steps but I have no problem with that as long as he maintains the learning curve going up. I would like to see him improve in climbing the pocket very soon. 

Upside players: Williams ran the ball very well but it was Herbert who opened eyes with his running ability, David Montgomery can take his time knowing his spot is in good hands. The Oline needs to clean some penalty problems but overall they are getting better and showed in the run game, especially James Daniels on his second level blocking. TEs helping in run blocking was key as well.

Downside players: Allen Robinson is a nitpick for me this week, I would just like to see him win more one on ones when going for the ball on contested catches, Fields is pin point most of the time with his passes, it's just a matter of him taking decisions faster but I expect Robinson to be more dominant. 

   The defense keeps making themselves known across the league, second unit in sacks produced is something not expected from them but here they are and Sean Desai has as much to do with it as the players. The only thing that is missing is keeping the pressure on in most of the game, maybe it's not a fair request but the secondary needs it especially when they get to face a franchise QB that can see the field or can extend plays and find the holes that are there but are getting hidden by the pass rush and the scheme that masks the defensive play. Kindle Vildor and Duke Shelley are hard nose corners that are doing their job as best as possible, but not even Jaylon Johnson who is a better player than them can cover receivers one on one on an island all the time. The return of Danny Trevathan is very good news, he and Alec Ogletree taking turns on plays will benefit both of them to get breathers while not hindering the defensive plays was they are very similar in playing styles.

Upside players: Khalil Mack came in this game with vengeance, even when dealing with some injuries he was exploding from the line on every play, would like to see this intensity on every game if possible. Robert Quinn is keeping it up and even looks to be getting better at bending the edge. It was very nice to see Eddie Goldman knocking defenders back. Angelo Blackson is trying his best to make his team not miss Akiem Hicks too much. Roquan Smith made some key plays on this game even if he was punished with some iffy penalties. Trevis Gipson keeps making plays with the limited snaps he gets, with Jeremiah Attaochu unfortunately getting badly hurt, Gipson will get more changes and hopefully it will result in more splash plays. DeAndre Houston-Carson had a very nice hash to sideline play resulting in an interception, more of that please.

Downside players: Mario Edwards Jr. needs to keep his cool, his unsportsmanlike conduct penalty helped the Raiders get their only TD of the game.

   The win cracks open the postseason door, it's still too early to say but next game against the Packers is legit important for the Bears to start thinking about it, a win would place them a top in the division and with a slate of tough opponents, it wouldn't hurt if Fields starts cementing his legacy by beating the arch rival in his first try. Green Bay might be starting to be a shell of its former self but they are still a tough team with Aaron Rodgers leading them, the Bears offense will need to control the ball and score often to keep the defense in high spirit while they try containing Rodgers, the best posible way I think they could do this is by limiting the run game and not get beat deep, keep tight coverage on Davante Adams and rush Rodgers with only four lineman in passing situations, rotating the Dline will be important but it would be even better if Hicks can play in this one. I hate giving Rodgers time to throw but I hate more when they start using screens and bubbles when blitzes are used and Rodgers unorthodox throwing is annoyingly effective on these plays, it would be better to try and pressure him with the minimum and hope for some mistakes to happen and turn them into turnovers. History might still repeat itself as things are now, the Bears showing good defense but not enough offense to get it done, so everything might fall on Fields, can he be the difference now or ever?

Useless predictions: 2021 Week 5 picks

   The Over/Under still gets the best of me, how the Browns and Vikings combine for 21 points is baffling to me. Denver and Miami lost their starting QB and are looking awful. The NFC west is a dilemma and an all out war. Pittsburgh and SF are in the watch list, they are not looking like contenders, one teams QB needs to be put down and the other team has a chance to change its path bringing in its QB prodigy. On to next week.

W4 record: 4-11

Overall: 15-46 (24%)

NY Jets (+2.5) at Atlanta     U45

   The Jets managed to pull it off last week and faces a Falcons team that will be missing its two top wideouts, maybe I can trust the Jests one more week.

Tennessee (-4.5) at Jacksonville    U48.5

   The Titans are still down some players but I think they have enough to put the Jaguars down this week.

Denver (-1) at Pittsburgh     U39.5

   What is this game? if Bridgewater plays then I am going with the Broncos, if its Lock then I really don't care.

New England (-8) at Houston    U39.5

   The Patriots have to win this one but can they score the needed points? I think it is going to depend more on the defense to shut down this pathetic Houston offense completely for another week.

Detroit at Minnesota (-10)    U49

   The Lions are so enigmatic and bad that it's a bit scary to bet against them, the VIkings have the team to cover this game, being a divisional game I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose.

Green Bay at Cincinnati (+2.5)   O50.5

   I want the Bengals to take advantage of this game so bad, the Packers will be without their best Olineman and corner for this one, they will have to make this one a shutout to have a chance.

Miami at Tampa Bay (-10)    U48

   The Dolphins are going to feel this one, the Bucs are going to feast.

New Orleans  at Washington (+2.5)   O43.5

   The hot and cold saints team going against the Football Team who plays on par with its opponent who ever it is. Gimme the points. 

Philadelphia at Carolina (-3)    O45

   The Eagles still look a bit lost and Carolinas struggles are because of injuries, going with the more stable team at home.

Chicago (+5.5) at Las Vegas     U44

   The Bears have new direction and the Raiders got some waht exposed las week, going with the points and trusting the defense to get it done.

Cleveland at LA Chargers (+2.5)    U47

   Two very talented young teams but Herbert and the Chargers have been very stale in the scoring department while an injured Mayfield and the Brown have struggled a bit the past weeks.

NY Giants at Dallas (-7)    U52

   The Giants have been fighting hard to me not mediocre but against Dak in Dallas, I don't think so.

San Francisco at Arizona (-5.5)    U49

   Here comes the rookie for the 49s, can he go toe to toe with Murray? Think it's going to take a while longer.

Buffalo (3) at Kansas City     U56.5

   A grudge match of last years AFC championship, can the Bills defense slow down Mahomes and the Chifes this time around?

Indianapolis at Baltimore (-7)    U45.5

   The Colts are still pretty banged up, the Ravens shouldn't let this one slide.

W4vsDET: "It all goes through me"

    What a way to take a rebounding, confidence building game and turn it into a joke. The Bears did what needed to be done and won against a still long lasting struggling franchise, the win is significant but what was more important was the changes made to the game plan so the Bears QB for the future could continue to grow at the position and boy did he show bright plays on this game featured by a new guidance in play calling and what will be an infamous memorable press conference that stained what was a good day.

   Justin Fields had a very good performance even if the stats don't show it, more specifically it could be said that he had a performance not seen very often by a Bears QB. It's fair to say that Rex Grossman, Jay Cutler and Mitchell Trubisky could rip the ball but when was the last time a Bears fan felt whole at the end of a game when watching them throw deep, those were throws that gave head aches or heart attacks, Fields multiple +20yd throws almost all of them where on the money except for his fist one where Darnell Mooney made an incredible one handed catch. The difference in defensive talent between the Lions and Browns was obvious, even so this game plan wasn't taking any chances, it didn't force Fields outside but counted on max protections with a lot of chip blocks from the TE and RB mixed with two or three TE sets to give Fields time to look deep or help push the line for David Montgomery who had a monster game and helped Fields have a cleaner pocket when using Play Action. 

Upside players: Justin Fields of course, he threw some dimes that just put a smile on my face but even better is that most of the throws made the receiver keep running for extra yards which is huge when you have a group of speedy receivers. David Montgomery is a menase to any team which makes his injury very unfortunate, only good thing is that it will not keep him out for the season. Allen Robinson and Mooney have to be feeling excited and dangerous with what Fields showed on this game, it's time for them to stretch the field.

Downside players: Marquise Goodwin and Jimmy Graham just because they didn't show up but i'll keep patient.

   The defense struggled against the run and didn't have the most cleanest game giving the Lions offense extra life and possibly could have made it into a close game but they tighten up on the red zone stopping a pair of 4th down tries and a pair of turnovers as well, enough for the Bears offense to close the deal. For one more game the Bears defense survives another game where a better QB could have gotten the best of them not counting on the ones that the Lions did take advantage by finding some blown assignments down field, still Sean Desai is doing a very good job with the front seven creating opportunities to get to the QB and helping his shaky secondary.

Upside players: Robert Quinn and Alec Ogletree probably made Ryan Pace feel very proud with their play this week, hope they can keep it up. Travis Gipson doesn't look like a finished product yet and st still he showed big flashes. Hopefully he will get better meaning Khalil Mack can take more breathers to keep himself fresh and come back to terrorize offenses.

Downside players: Deon Bush isn't quite on the same page sometimes, needs to get better on communication but maybe it will be to late with Tashaun Gipson feeling healthier. 

   With the latest news from Matt Nagy stating that Fields will be the starting QB from now on, the Bears have a chance to be GOOD at offense in the near future but this is one step of two that needed to be made for this to happen, the other is for Bill Lazor to continue to be the play caller, this is still in the air due to Nagy's enigmatic ways to informe in press conferences, lately looking uncomfortable to the point where he likely feels attacked and angry at the ways things have developed in his decision making process. Changes needed to be made to know where this team is really at, Nagy loses more by sticking with the same formula that has failed, waiting till the season ends to see the result is too much wasted time, the change to Lazor and being in Fields ear worked for one game, let it continue and see if it can evolve, maybe this is what Nagy fears and it thinks it could result in losing his job, being a head coach and making the right decision IS the job, it doesn't have to include the play calling, not being a team player is more damaging that not calling the plays. Fields is a potencial boost to the offense and gives hope that the team can elevate their game against opponents like the Raiders who are inconsistent, they are good but haven't shown it for the whole four quarters. Derek Carr gets hot, or desperate, and it shows when get puts extra gas on his throws, he can be rattled if pressured enough. He has the receivers to stretch the field and a reliable alpha with Darren Waller who should be the Bears primary concern, not an easy task that will probably by assigned to Roquan Smith. The Raiders running game is not that great with Josh Jacobs so the Bears defense shouldn't struggle much in this department even if Akiem Hicks doesn't recover in time. The Raiders defense strength is the edge rushers so I expect that the Bears keep it up with what they did against the Lions and improve on their TE sets and max protection to help their OTs. The first quarter of the season ended up being what many though, the next four games are extra tough and a win against the Raiders will very much help in the standings but this season with Fields now leading the way it's much more important to see the HOW they manage to win.

Useless predictions: 2021 Week 4 picks

   Back on track from horrendous to mediocre, Baltimore just barely edging Detroit was weird, the Chargers managed to pull the upset of the week against Kansas City followed by a stomping by a scary looking Minnesota squad beating Seattle, Rams established themselves as the big dogs of the NFC for now by beating Tampa Bay, Green Bay escaped with the win in San Francisco.

W3 record: 4-11

Overall: 11-35 (24%)

Kansas City (-7) at Philadelphia    O54.5

   The Eagles lost bad at Dallas, the Chiefs coming from a painful close lose finding themselves at the bottom of their division will be out looking for blood.

Houston at Buffalo (-17)    U47

   The Bills are in a rampage, a full on manslaughter is possible in Buffalo against this Texans team that became mediocre once their savior Tyrod Taylor unfortunately was lost and placed on IR.

Carolina at Dallas (-4)    O51.5

   The Cowboys look strong with Dak at the helm, the defense has been playing good but is banged up, the Panther with McCaffrey out could turn this into a full air assault, it would be their best chance, the Cowboys have a good ground attack with Zeke and Pollard that can burn the clock if they take an early lead.

NY Giants at New Orleans (-7)    U42

   The Saints are turning to be a good enough team to beat the middle of the pack and below, the Giants are one of those team and will be down two of their best receivers it what only can result in their demise.

Washington (-1.5) at Atlanta    U47.5

   The Football Team got crunched by the Bills last week, can the Falcons take something out of that game to keep it close?

Indianapolis at Miami (-2)    U42.5

   The Colts are in Hospital mode with a bunch of players out for this one, can Brissett and the Dolphins Dline capitalize on this advantage with a solid defensive performance?

Cleveland (-2) at Minnesota    O51.5

   A battle of headhunting Dlines and established RB groups, they really look like a carbon copy of each other, it could probably come down to the kickers, the horror.

Tennessee  at NY Jets (+6.5)    U44.5

   The Titans shouldn't have problems to win this one except they are down a plethora of players including their two rebounding receivers in Brown and Jones, it could be a mistake to trust this Jets team but if it's not now then when?

Detroit at Chicago (-2.5)    O41.5

   This could easily be the most pitiful game of the week, the Lions have kept themselves in games because they get the ball bounce their way more often than not and refuse to go down easy, the Bears are half a man with no heart or brain but has muscles to spare. Lets see if the brute can beat up the lucky bastard.

Seattle at San Francisco (-3)    O52

   The Seahawks are not fooling or scaring anyone lately and are probably going to get another L by the 49ers.

Arizona at LA Rams (-4)    O54.5

   Great matchup that should be a high scoring game, the Cardinals are a good team but are still a bit inconsistent, the Rams haven't shown to be slowing down.

Pittsburgh at Green Bay (-6.5)    U45.5

   The steelers offense is depleted and isn't helping its defense that now has T.J. Watt back and should in in full force, the Packers will have their own issues on with their best OL guy out for this one, it might not be enough to outscore Rodgers.

Baltimore at Denver (+1)    U45

   This will be the Broncos first big test although the Ravens have been very iffy offensively with Lamar Jackson using his legs more often than his arm but this could be better for him against a very difficult secondary.

Tampa Bay (-7) at New England    U49

   The return of the prodigal son, the Bucs are set to give Brady his first win against his former team to complete his next achievement of beating every NFL team in his career.

Las Vegas (+3) at LA Chargers     O51.5

   This is a good one, two teams that have played good enough to be considered to be contenders, this one could go to the wire so I will side with the team with points in favor.