Useless predictions: 2021 Conference Championship weekend

    Corrected the year of these playoff games, my bad. Two mistakes, betting over in a snow day in Lambeau and not trusting my Super Bowl pick in the Rams to get it done, still managed to get one right. It worked, Ryan Tannehill threw for 3 picks and it was enough to sunk the Titans ship even with cyborg version Derrick Henry running the ball. Thank you Robbie Gould for ending the Packers empire who just could not fix their special teams all season and came to put the last nail in the coffin, the offense doing close to nothing for three and a half quarter didn't help either. Tom Brady almost pulled another super comeback but was missing dark lord Bill Belichick to complete the task, you just cant stop playing defense at this stage. Speaking of defense, what the hell Bills you were the #1 ranked defense and did squat to plunge golden boy Josh Allen to the championship, this is why every team prefers to go all in on offense, its just too hard to build an elite defensive unit and too painful to watch it go down because of a bad offensive unit that cant score. On to next week.

Divisional round: 1-3

Playoffs record: 4-6 (40%)

Cincinnati (+7) at Kansas City     O54.5

   The Bengals could be considered a similar team as the Bills, they can score in any given moment and they play though defense. Therefore this could be another shootout, Joe Burrow isn't as athletic as Josh Allen and the Bengals OL is weaker, he will need the help of his vast arsenal of skilled teammates. If the Chiefs defense snoozes like they did against the Bills they will pay for it once again. The Chiefs have been here before and just might be a bit to much offensively for the newcomers. The 7 points are a bad take, half a point either way would make me decide which team I would pick.

San Francisco at LA Rams (-3.5)    O45.5

   The Rams are to loaded but still are so inconsistent that you cant be sure about them, they almost Falconed the previous game but ended wining it as easily as they played the first 3 qtrs of the game. The 49ers survived the potent Packers offense and got lucky with their bad special team play who saved their offenses behind, still the 49ers big weapons they have did show up but they sure looked like they were banged up at the end of the game, Trent Williams status in the air is concerning, this will be a defensive showdown to see who cracks first or more often, if it weren't for Jimmy Garoppolo's iffy injured hand I would be sure the OVER will hit, this game wont be played in the tundra this time but in sunny California and in a dome, well something that resembles a dome. 

Useless predictions: 2022 Division weekend

 Hey I hit half of the games las week, not bad, fun times. The Raiders could have helped me make it four but their fight reached their limit and could not punch it in to force overtime. The Cowboys memed their way into elimination, the 49ers gave them too much life just for them to educate us some in situational football on how NOT to use the clock. I don't understand what happened to the Cardinals, they just looked lost offensively, Kyler Murray was out of sync and unprepared to say the least which didn't help his coaches get out of their losing funk. The Eagles got obliterated as expected, Jalen Hurts played a horrible game with multiple turnovers which was the cause for their loss, the organization tells us he will get another shot next season, I would think otherwise. The dark master has been slain and the Patriots eliminated, we are safe, for now. The end of an era was established once the Steelers got pummeled, Ben Roethlisberger can now take it easy and enjoy the divisional matchups from the comfort of his home like the rest of us. On to next week.

Playoffs: 3-3 (50%)

Cincinnati (+4) at Tennessee    U48

   I bet the Bengals feel dangerous with their offense, they did enough against a tough Raiders defense, can they go toe to toe with a stingy Titans defense who has more talent all around but are hot and cold,. The Titans are getting Derrick Henry back from injury and will be a big task for the Bengals DL which is a good unit but can they be good enough to stop him. The Bengals can go one dimensional and stick to stopping the run game and make Ryan Tannehill beat them, going with Cincinnati feels like the right choice on this one, should be a good game.

San Francisco (+5.5) at Green Bay    O47

   Health has been key for the late success of the 49ers, they have key skill players that are difference makers like Deebo Samuel and Nick Bosa but the leaders in Jimmy Garoppolo and Fred Warner are the ones that need to shine and will be more counted on. The Packers look scarier than ever with tough defensive play keeping Aaron Rodgers more comfortable with tight scores not needing him to play hero ball so often, they are getting back more defensive help with the return of pass rushers Za'Darius Smith and Whitney Mercilus, this is huge for them and may be too much for the 49ers solid OLine, still both rosters are talented and the playoff success by the 49ers against the Packers is present and its not a far fetched idea that it could continue.

LA Rams at Tampa Bay (-2.5)    U48

   The Rams have been my pick for NFC representatives for this years Super Bowl and have been very solid all year but going against Tom Brady is still no easy task, both teams are banged up and will be a match of who wants it more, honestly I don't think anybody wants it more than Brady every year.

Buffalo (+1.5) at Kansas City    O54

   The Bills are my AFC representative for the Super Bowl and are riding strong at the right time, they will give everything to not go down against the Chiefs like last year, the Chiefs are still struggling to play a complete game but have the fire power to come back from any adversity, the Bills will need to leave everything on the line and I believe they will make it this time around.

Useless predictions: 2022 Wild card weekend

    Its too soon to say but the 7th seed going against the 2nd seed in the NFL doesn't look to be fair, but as the saying goes, once you get to the playoffs anything can happen. Based on my initial predictions at the start of the season, teams that let me down where most from the AFC especially Cleveland and Miami, they were in the hunt in the final weeks but ultimately couldn't hang on, Denver looked good at the beginning but went head first once Teddy Bridgewater started getting injured, the Chargers got "backstabbed" by the Raiders but that's what happens when you go against a team that went through so much turmoil this season and clawed themselves into the 5th seed which is incredible, the one I just cant believe is Pittsburgh just hanging in there for dear life just to probably get obliterated by the Chiefs this weekend, I wasn't all in with the Patriots to get in but I knew you just couldn't count out Bill Belichick and his dark magic. With the NFC I got luckier although the Carolina pick was a disaster, Washington battled but just couldn't hold on with their injuries to the defense and loosing the Beard for the whole season, wasn't surprised that Dallas made it with Dak Prescott healthy and Micah Parson being a complete animal, the Eagles look like a seventh seed alright but can they pull a Houdini like last time and win it all? probably not but dammit its the playoffs. On to the predictions.

Season Overall: 43-135 (24%)

Las Vegas (+5.5) at Cincinnati    O49

   The Raiders are a scrappy bunch of fighters, the Bengals certainly have a powerful offense especially by air but the Oline is still average at best when trying to protect Joe Burrow, the Raiders Dline have feasted against these type of Olines so there is a chance of an upset because of this, Burrow will have to run for his life or get rid of the ball fast which he is good at and can rely on Joe Mixon to help out by land or air. Still I believe it will be a close one. 

New England at Buffalo (-4)    U44

   Two out of three? this will be a battle of wits vs brawns, Belichick will try to outsmart the Bills once more by using the elements in his favor, can Josh Allen and Sean McDermott learn from past mistakes? This must be a statement game for Allen and the Bills by getting rid of their past demons that are the Patriots and claim the top spot for they are the better team, and the fact that the Patriots are really banged up might help the cause.

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay (-9)    U47

   The Eagles will have to leave it all in the field on this one, Jalen Hurts must limit the mistakes to give his defense momentum against Tom Brady, the Buccaneers are a Rob Gronkowski injury away to be just another offense, but until then this team is still legit.

San Francisco (+3) at Dallas    U51

   The 49ers are getting healthier and that is scary, both teams are good squads with plenty of talent but struggle to make it work on occasions, this might come to who turns the ball less, I'm smelling an upset.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City (-12.5)    O46.5

   The Steelers proved enough just by reaching the playoffs, its time to send Ben Roethlisberger home to rest, he has earned it. In all seriousness the Steelers defense can make some noise if Patrick Mahomes regreses to early season play and Najee Harris could run all over the Chiefs defense but the odds are really low.

Arizona (+4) at LA Rams    O49.5

   The Rams scare me for the wrong reasons, the Lions sent damaged goods to the Rams, Mathew Stafford looks like he is duck taped together and is one good hit from being completely dismantled, the Rams are capable of scoring at will but haven't looked like it recently, the are looking like the inverse Chiefs, they started hot and are running on fumes, the Cardinals are more than capable of taking advantage of this with their young players although I believe Kliff Kingsbury is know to collapse at these stages of the season, so who will prevail? leadership or personnel? Will Sean McVay keep his team and Stafford together with superglue in hand or will Kyle Murray and Co. manage to break his coaches slump?

Offseason rant: Meat to bone/roster for 2022

    The 2022 roster will start very thin and a rebuild is looking like a pretty good idea now that Ryan Pace's plan to go all in with Matt Nagy and Mitchell Trubisky has failed horribly, the COVID era hasn't helped him one bit to sustain a healthy salary cap and stable roster, this tipped the balance against him making the organization look elsewhere for a new start at GM as well. I was hoping they gave Pace the position Ted Phillips has just to have someone more with football knowledge in the building but didn't happen, family ties might just be too strong in Halas Hall.

   From the coaches that have been popping out lately for interviews I really don't have a favorite, but the ones that resonate to me as interesting are Brian Flores, Brian Daboll and Matt Eberflus. Flores just because of what I saw he did with the Dolphins, the players responded to him and seemed they never quit on him and had a good run with the team but what worries me most with Flores is who will he bring with him being that he is still new to the league compared to other candidates. Daboll is all about what he accomplished with Josh Allen which is what  would be expected of him to accomplish with Fields if he is hired, would that be enough reason to make him the HC? Eberflus has very good credentials and experience by coaching on almost every position on the defense side of the ball, the recent results he was able to accomplish with the Colts are incredible, if I had to roll with someone that hasn't been a HC it would be this guy, the only thing is if he can manage to bring help with him to coach up Fields. I'm really not against Doug Pederson being a candidate, he had a good record with the Eagles and has a Super Bowl to show off, the fact that he has been out of a job for a year is somewhat bothersome. Dan Quinn has experience as well and has a trip to the Super Bowl but he is known for building a good defensive unit with the Falcons and had a very good QB with Matt Ryan and still found ways to choke on many games. Bryon Leftwich and Nathaniel Hackett are too green for my taste, of the two I'm more interested in Leftwich but its too similar to hiring Nagy again. Todd Bowles and Leslie Frazier are too washed up for me but that does mean they have the more knowledge of personnel in the NFL but feels like hiring John Fox all over again. Josh McDaniels isn't considered to be interviewed by the Bears, at least not yet, I hope they do, even with his bad reputation of leaving the Colts to dry when they gave him the HC job some years back, he is one interesting candidate to see if he can help Fields grow. 

   For GM, Morocco Brown and Ed Dodds from the Colts are my favorites for now, they seem to be high energy guys with a good roster building record. One new resent candidate the Bears are going to interview is Omar Khan from the Steelers, like Baltimore there aren't many franchises that are consistently good because of the loaded rosters they get year after year. And no, I don't care if none of the GMs listed have never drafted a hall of fame QB, because (aside from the frikin Packers, Cowboys and 49ers, the Colts don't count) who has stumbled on back to back franchise QBs? That is a miracle in itself.

   I played with a cap calculator and simulated the Bears roster knowing very little of what was I doing or if it made sense, but it made me have a superficial understanding of how complicated its going to be to fill next seasons roster. What gives me hope is that many teams are on a similar boat so it should not be impossible, its just a matter of understanding how the pieces need to be moved to make you get more pieces. So next up is what I think should happen this offseason.

The Bears need bodies to fill the roster and it will start by re-signing almost every FA they have this year and everybody from the 2021 practice squad. Extending Roquan Smith. Terminating contracts of Jimmy Graham, Nick Foles, Danny Trevethan and Jeremy Attaochu to make cap room. I considered restructuring contracts of Eddie Goldman, Khalil Mack and/or Robert Quinn but I preferred to stick with things as they are this year and make the pull from the 2023, more bad moves and next season will look as bad a situation as this one.

   Other than RB, OLB and maybe DL, all the positions are heavily lacking personnel, I listed the players signed and placed some Free Agent players that interest me,

 

QB - Justin Fields

FA - Marcus Mariota, Jacoby Brissett

   The new coach will make his choice of a veteran backup QB, its safer to have some experience behind Fields but the limited cap doesn't make it easy, going next season with two rookie QBs isn't the best of ideas but could be an option. I only hope they get someone that resembles Field's strengths.

RB - David Montgomery, Khalil Herbert, Tarik Cohen

FA - Justin Jackson, Chase Edmonds, D'Ernest Johnson, Marlon Mack, Rashaad Penny, Sony Michel, Derrick Gore.

   I like this RBs group, if Tarik Cohen returns it has a bit of everything, but with Cohen's injury status and a contract that is very steep right now, putting him in the trade block isn't a bad idea for the Bears future. I would even consider placing David Montgomery for trade just because he might have more value right now and could help the Bears have more future picks to stock up, Khalil Herbert is capable of taking the starting spot or he can be paired with someone from the FA's available, still Montgomery's presences as a leader recently may make him more valuable to the team.

WR - Darnell Mooney

FA - Cedrick Wilson, Braxton Berrios, Russell Gage, Christian Kirk, Chris Godwin, Mike Williams, Michael Gallup, Tre'Quan Smith. 

   This group is in desperate need of help, I would bring back Jakeem Grant and Marquis Goodwin on one year deals to fill in some spots. From FA, I would bring in Cedrick Wilson from Dallas and Russell Gage from Atlanta. Chris Godwin is too expensive and coming off an injury. If Michael Gallup comes cheap it would be another option instead of Wilson. A possible cheaper option than Gage would be Braxton Berrios. There is still room to use a high draft pick for a promising WR than can contribute from day one.

TE - Cole Kmet

FA - Mo Allie-Cox, Tyler Conklin, David Njoku, O.J. Howard

   I wouldn't consider bringing a TE from FA, keep the cash to bring back Jesse James and Jesper Horsted on cheaper deals.

OL - Teven Jenkins, Cody Whitehair, Larry Borom

FA - Brian Allen, Bradley Bozeman, Tyler Larsen, Dan Feeney, Quinton Spain, Laken Tomlinson, Alex Cappa, Dennis Kelly, Lucas Patrick 

   The Oline needs James Daniels back to pair with Jenkins and Borom, competition is needed to push Cody Whitehair to play better or to get benched. Sam Mustipher is a cheap re-sign but should not start next season, I was considering  signing a veteran Center but it would probably be too expensive and the guys available I would think will want long term deals, maybe a one year veteran like Tyler Larsen would be a better option but probably wont want to play for peanut, so instead I went with Mustipher as a backup plan and bringing in Lucas Patrick from Green bay who is capable of playing Center but is a guard that could compete against Whitehair, this way a Center would be one of my bigger priorities at draft day along with a WR, but resent opinions from draft geeks have commented that the Center class from this year isn't very deep, so maybe its better to sign one in FA if available. 

DL - Angelo Blackson, Eddie Goldman, Khyris Tonga, Mario Edwards Jr.

FA - B.J. Hill, Austin Johnson

   As much as I would want for Akiem Hicks to be re-signed, I think its time to thank him for his great play and let him go to save some cap for someone serviceable, Angelo Blackson has been playing pretty good and hopefully can help not miss Hicks too much. I was opting to sign a FA to fill in for Bilail Nichols spot but preferred to stick with him instead, he is as much capable of good play than anyone of the FA available this offseason. Eddie Goldman's contract is an eye catcher, it makes the option of getting him on the trade block an option but the need for bodies on the DL is a big issue.

OLB - Khalil Mack, Trevis Gipson, Sam Kamara, Robert Quinn.

FA - Arden Key, Al-Quadin Muhammad, Rasheem Green, Ogbonnia Okoronkwo

   Signing FA EDGE's is pricy, here is a wild idea, with Gipson, Kamara and bringing back Charles Snowden to make OLB decently full at the position, I would tempt the idea of placing Mack and Quinn on the trade block and see what offers fall. Giving up on both these players would significantly decrease the defensive power of this unit but also would kick the door open to a rebuild and I don't see it as a bad thing, it would give the team direction to build the offense RIGHT NOW, surround Fields with talent and build the defense from scratch, see what young guys can be building blocks and start from there. 

ILB -  Caleb Johnson, Roquan Smith

FA - Jalen Reeves-Maybin, Reggie Ragland

   Instead of FA to fill in the spot of Trevathan, I would bring back Alec Ogletree and Joel Iyiegbuniwe. Its never not a good idea to draft an athletic specimen LB and see if he can learn to play the position at a professional level.

CB - Jaylon Johnson, Kindle Vildor, Duke Shelley, Thomas Graham Jr.

FA -Anthony Averett, Dante Jackson, Desmond King

   This spot is filled with young talent and that is a good thing when you don't have huge expectations for a defense but the problem is that the present Bears organization doesn't know yet if they have an outside CB to pair with Johnson. Graham played good but too little, Vildor showed better play as a NB, bringing back Artie Burns is not a terrible idea, he played more as an outside CB more than the previous two mentioned and did decent, I also considered bringing Xavier Crawford to fill the position with a bit more experience. Still this is a position that needs all the help it can get, either by FA or preferably via the draft.

S - Eddie Jackson

FA - Keanu Neal, Jaquiski Tartt

   Jackson sadly would be someone more to consider putting in the trade block because of his value and is further enough into veteran status, although maybe pairing him with a better SS would be an easier transition. Bringing back DeAndre Houston-Carson and Deon Bush for a pair of years could fill the void somewhat until better talent is found, Teez Tabor can come too. 

   So with the moves I made without trading anyone, I got 64 players to the roster by adding the players still signed (25 players), re-signing every PS player from 2021 (17 players), extending Smith, re-signing 19 players from the 2021 roster (8 offense, 9 defense and 2 ST) and signing 3 FAs (3 offense). The Bears have 5 draft picks, giving picks away is a big no-no, trading down for more picks is a good option. Adding some 10 players from the UDFA pool gives the Bears roster 79 players to start their 2022 season, not bad but I think less than 85 is not ideal and this is where the magic cap moves from these GMs come to play and able to sign some more FAs. Not re-signing Allen Robinson, Akiem Hicks and possibly Germian Ifedi, Christian Jones and Tashaun Gipson could get the Bears a chance to have at least one compensatory pick for 2023 if they only sign the three guys I mentioned form FA but its probably not going to happen, more guys will need to be signed and will cancel any chance of getting more picks which is a bummer. This is something that needs to change, the Bears organization needs to be better and think more in stocking for the future and find ways on how to expand their chances of getting more talent now more than ever when they have big promise at a position they have never had real talent at and is the prime position of all the sport, Fields needs the help to get that chance, to be the guy for them and see how far they can get with him.

Bears 2021 season recap

    The Bears say goodbye to the 2021 season with a 6-11 record which needles to say was not enough to get into the post season, the result ended snapping Matt Nagy's 3 straight "winning" season streak and getting his butt out of Chicago, he was a players coach no doubt but just didn't look functional as a game manager/planner and the coaching staff he brought with him just didn't get results done by having their players execute properly and consistently on game day. Maybe if, and its a big if, Sean Desai is retained, the defensive coaching staff wont take a major hit, the offensive side though is going to be a complete sweep, I don't think any of the coaching staff members will get a break once the new coach is hired and that's why its more important to me that the Bears organization hire a coach that can bring in a competent group of coaches that can help him develop the team, especially Fields, I don't care what side of the ball the coach has more expertise on, I just want a coach that is ready on Sundays, focused on the game while having coaches that can ease the load with the game plan. 

   Looking back at my predictions for the Bears wins and loses for this year, I almost got the record right, and was pretty close of nailing it if they were to win against the Steelers in that mugging of a game and lost at Seattle on an improbable comeback, only game I have no excuse is calling a win against the Cards.

   It was a so-so year for Justin Fields who managed to take the field on 10 games as a starter but the coaching let him down by not having an established plan made for him, still showed growth and grit to play hurt managing a dysfunctional offense. The Oline got direction as the season went but again it was because of injuries that forced the team to play the young guys in Teven Jenkins and Larry Borom who showed they belong in the NFL and could become a solid Tackle tandem, the struggles really came from the inside of the line specially from Sam Mustipher's Center position, Cody Whitehair had a down year reportedly because he was playing injured which would be great news if true, one can hope he can come healthy next season and play more dominant, James Daniels played decent to solid football, he is still young and managed to play a full season which should help him get an extension from the Bears. Allen Robinson disappeared from the earth, looked like he didn't want anything to do with this team and should be shown the door so he can be happy elsewhere, only bright spot from this area was Darnell Mooney eclipsing the 1,000 receiving yards but still he needs someone to take pressure off from his side, he isn't a number one but is a great number two. The Bears might not have the Travis Kelce or George Kittle version in Cole Kmet but he is no slouch, he managed to shown he is a do it all and can do it at a high level just not at a pro bowl level, not yet anyway.

   It is sad to see Akiem Hicks get hurt these past seasons, he is the heart and soul of the defense and it just might be the end of the road for him in Chicago, he will be missed. Watching what Robert Quinn can do when healthy, it would be awesome to have that duo with a healthy Khalil Mack, only thing about this is if the Bears will have enough to maintain a decent defensive core to surround these two pro bowlers, it would be such a waste if they don't manage to do it. Fortunately they wont feel so lonely with Eddie Goldman, Roquan Smith, Eddie Jackson, and Jaylon Johnson still on the team as key players for next season.

   There are pieces in place and building blocks on this team for the future, now its up to the new regime of coaches and leaders to load the team up and try once more to get these men to the big show in 2023.