domingo, 13 de octubre de 2024

Week 6 picks

   I am soo bad at over/under. The Jets are bad? HOW?. The Browns, Panthers, Raiders, Titans and Patriots are bad, this I get. The Bills, 49ers and Bengals are not bad but are really struggling. I don't know what the Colts, Broncos, Giants and Cardinals are. The Rams and Dolphins are damaged goods. The Seahawks, Cowboys, Chargers, Jaguars and Saints are broken. The Bears and Commanders are a thing. The Packers, Ravens, Eagles and Texans are good but not as good as last year. The Vikings Lions, Falcons and Bucs are happy. The Steelers are chaos. That's it, no I did not forget the Chiefs.

Last week: 1-12 (8%)

Overall: 15-56 (21%)


Jaguars @ Bears (+1)    (U44.5)

   Its going to be though for the Bears, having some injuries at their secondary, still I will believe they can pull it off.


Cardinals (+5.5) @ Green Bay     (U47)

   "Good" Kyler Murray can keep this one close enough against "Bad" Jordan Love.


Browns @ Philadelphia (-8.5)    (O42.5)

   A healthy Eagles team will go against a banged up Browns secondary with poor QB play and no Nick Chubb.


Texans (-6.5) @ New England    (O37.5)

   The Texans will go without Nico Collins which will hurt, still the Patriots have struggled to protect their QB and plan to go with rookie Drake May, I don't see a big change coming soon.


Commanders (+6.5) @ Baltimore    (O51.5)

   The Commanders are coming in hot and they might have to many points in their favor against a Ravens team that has struggled to close out games.


Buccaneers (-3.5) @ New Orleans    (U42)

   The Saints will go without David Carr, so a rookie behind a injury plagued Oline does not bode well against a stout Bucs Dline with Vita Vea at point blank range.


Colts (+2.5) @ Tennessee    (O43)

   So who is going to QB for the Colts, it may not even matter at this point.


Chargers (-3) @ Denver    (O35.5)

   The Chargers conservative approach is what makes it hard to believe in them. Bo Nix is up and down which is no surprise given he is a rookie, still he should get a tough matchup against some nasty Chargers EDGE rushers.


Steelers (-3) @ Las Vegas    (U36.5)

   The Raiders will go with a new QB and the Steelers will have T.J. Watt hunting him down, that should do it.


Falcons (-6) @ Carolina    (O46.5)

   I do expect the Falcons to pop at offense and just pummel the Panthers defense. I don't expect the Panthers to make it close offensively.


Lions (-3) @ Dallas    (U52.5)

   The Cowboys are frauds, the Lions are legit.


Bengals (-3.5) @ NY Giants     (U47)

   How the Giants win games is beyond me, the Bengals are a good team just constantly shooting themselves in the foot, stop it already.


Bills (-2.5) @ NY Jets    (O41)

   These two teams are just a headache, the Jets are a better team led by someone that doesn't play to his potential, is he washed up? Maybe. Josh Allen and the Bills where bound to have a downgrade this year but have played themselves too often. Flip a coin.

sábado, 12 de octubre de 2024

W5vsPanthers: Successfully playing the role of bully

   Its good to know that the outcome of a game the Bears should win was a game dominated by both sides by them. It wasn't instantaneous but it got done, the Bears showed they can beat the weak no problem, they couldn't do this against the struggling Colts so consistency is the next step.


   The offense had a field day with the Panthers, even the most struggling player had a good day in this game. What I appreciate is that once they had a big lead, the offense didn't stop throwing the ball, giving Caleb Williams much needed reps in a live game against starters. The Oline gave us a decent running game and gave D'Andre Swift a chance to display his talent and give him more opportunities in the future, time will tell if this was a wake up call for this unit and can build from this against more stout Dlines.

Upside players: It was great to see the connection between Williams and DJ Moore. Bill Murray played angry, I liked that a lot.
Downside players: Its hard to point someone having a bad game, I could say that Keenan Allen still playing average is somewhat worrisome.


   The defense was solid, had some breaks with how some plays were executed poorly by the Panthers, still they played strong, hustled and stood firm in the red zone.

Upside players: Gervon Dexter is looking really good, along with Andrew Billings, they can really make the pass rush work along Montez Sweat even with subpar effort from the other EDGE position. Kevin Byard showed up in a positive way, he is making this secondary look elite. Jaquan Brisker is growing on me as a really good enforcer.
Downside players: The opposite side form Sweat is was very quiet this game.


   Next up is a far away home game in London against Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars who just won their first game las week, they have talent on the roster but are still finding the right formula to make it work. The Bears could beat this team but they will have to do it without Brisker and Tyrique Stevenson against a good Jaguars receiving core with rising star rookie Brian Thomas Jr., the Bears pass rush will have to be extra effective on this game if they want to help Williams and the offense not play catchup against a good Jaguars pass rush led by Josh Allen. Both Olines are going to play a big role on this game, both are shaky but have the RBs to punish either defense, although both have good LBs. Come to think of it, with the injuries to the Bears secondary, these teams are really similar right now, no home advantage and both coming out of a win, its very even, comes down to who has the hotter hand at QB, still think the Bears can come back with the win.

domingo, 6 de octubre de 2024

Week 5 picks

   Over/unders are still not my thing. The Bengals are no longer losers. The Jaguars are the only team to still not win. The Vikings sold their soul. The Jets and Eagles are still struggling. The Broncos are the new version of the 2011 Tim Tebow led team. Joe Flacco can still play, its amazing. Jayden Daniels WTF. The Dolphins and Browns are in deeeeeep trouble, same problem different reasons. The Chiefs won by ref ball I'm not sure but I'm sure.

Last week: 3-12 (20%)

Season overall: 14-44 (24%)


Jets @ Minnesota(-2.5)    (O41)

   The Jets haven't proven they can maintain an offense, on the other hand the Viking have done it on each game.


Panthers (+4) @Chicago     (U41)

   The Panthers are a totally different team with Andy Dalton leading, still dont think they win but keep it close.


Colts (+3) @ Jacksonville     (U45.5)

   Same thing with the Colts, Joe Flacco can distribute the ball better than Anthony Richardson, the Jaguars are lost with a banged up Trevor Lawrence.


Browns @ Washington (-3)    (U43.5)

   One more bad game by Deshaun Watson and its time to bring someone else on the field. Jayden Daniels is on fire.


Ravens @ Bengals (+2.5)    (U48.5)

   The Bengals might be back, the Ravens are sooo inconsistent.


Bills (+1) @ Houston    (O47)

   Both teams are showing some struggles to keep things under control, I just believe more in Josh Allen.


Dolphins (-1) @ New England    (U35.5)

   The Patriots are playing bad with a solid team and no QB, the Dolphins are playing bad with a great team and no QB. 


Raiders @ Denver (-3)    (U35.5)

   Who am I kidding I don't know, its hard playing in Denver.


Cardinals (+7) @ San Francisco    (O49)

   Kyler Murray makes this Cardinals team so enigmatic, they have the talent to beat even the 49ers but there's Murray to hold back the team or run over the opponent.


Packers @ Rams (+3)    (U48.5)

   I'm just going with the idea that Jordan Love is still broken and will struggle against the sneaky Rams.


Giants @ Seattle (-7)    (U42.5)

   The Giants without Malik Nabers is going to be interesting to know how bad this team is without him.


Cowboys (+2.5) @ Steelers     (U44)

   The Cowboys should win against a banged up Steelers defense, but its the Cowboys.


Saints @ Kansas City (-5.5)    (O43)

   You just cant say the Chiefs are going to lose, ever.

W4vsLAR: Taking what is given

    Last week against the Colts they let the game slip by playing worse than they did, this time around, the Bears did just enough to take advantage of the sloppiness of the opponent to capitalize a win, but also played a sloppy game themselves but not enough to make it impossible to come back from it. So, baby steps where taken, improvement none the less, that what many expect to see as the season continues.


   The offense struggled less, but the Oline made SOOO many penalties in the first half, it was pure pain. Losing Teven Jenkins is never a good sign, he adds one more to his injury history which does not bode well for a possible extension. Shane Waldron made a positive thing by playing Roschon Johnson more, if it wasn't for D'Andre Swift doing good things on this game, I would expect Johnson and Swift to share the snap count down the middle, but it was closer to 70/30 which at the end of the day it worked, just keep feeding Johnson. I cant imagine what Khalil Herbert did to disappear from the faze of the earth or what lingering injury he could be dealing with, but even Travis Homer got snaps when healthy, I don't get it. Caleb Williams is getting better, made a pair of great throws and took care of the football, solid performance, still needs to be in sink with his wideouts to get better results.

Upside players: Cole Kmet is showing up and is making a difference in this offense.

Downside players: Keenan Allen was there but didn't do much really, would be good to see more Tyler Scott just to see what he brings to the table. Once Ryan Bates and Kiran Amegadjie get healthy, I need to see what they got and push Colman Shelton and Matt Pryor to the bench.


   The defense did a solid job to maintain the game in reach for the offense to maintain the slim lead. The turnovers where so critical and limiting the Rams offense to field goals was key, the bend but don't break mentality of this defense was in full effect in this game. 

Upside players: Gonna place Tory Taylor here because his punts made a difference by pinning the Rams inside the 10 on three occasions, huge boost for the defense. Montez Sweat made his appearance with a big turnover to place the offense on Rams territory for the first 7 points, pivotal play. Gervon Dexter and Jaquan Brisker had a pair of splash plays to turn things around. 

Downside players: None


   Next up a visit from the Panthers led by vet Andy Dalton who helped this team turn things around by playing better offense in their last two games, still its another game that should be winnable for the Bear The defense has to put pressure on Dalton and it wont be that easy against a solid Oline and Dalton´s quick read and release . The Bears offense will have to play the ground game to take advantage of an injured Panthers front seven, if they fall behind to soon, its going to be a bit hard to go through the air against Jaycee Horn who Williams will have to be very aware of were he lines up.

sábado, 28 de septiembre de 2024

Week 4 picks

 

   Last weeks predictions were close in some games but fell short. Teams are starting to struggle due to injuries like the Bucs, Dolphins and 49ers, others like the Rams just find ways to win despite of it. Browns and Jaguars are in for a long season as bad teams, Bengals haven't won a game yet and that was not expected. Panthers turn things around in a big way with their QB switch. The Vikings are legit. The Commanders and Jayden Daniels are on the map now. Chiefs still needing the refs to bail them.

Last week: 3-12 (20%)

Season overall: 11-32 (25%)


Bengals (-4.5) @ Carolina     (O47)

   Andy Dalton and the Panthers looks dominant last week, but the Bengals have to play in win now mode and have the team to do it.


Broncos (+8) @ NY Jets    (O39.5)

   The Jets and Broncos seem to have found their rhythm, Ill take the points.


Saints @ Atlanta (-2.5)    (O41)

   The Saints looks somewhat shell shocked against the Eagles, the Falcons took the champs head on and could have one if not for ref ball.


Steelers (-2) @ Indianapolis    (U40)

   The Colts have shown a poor offense and the Steelers are the best defensive unit in the league.


Vikings (+3) @ Green Bay    (U44.5)

   Good divisional matchup, I'm taking the Vikings points and their defense to make this one close.


Rams (+3) @ Chicago    (U40.5)

   I don't understand how the Rams are underdogs when coming out of a win against the 49ers, if all the Bears should be the underdogs coming off a game they could have or should have won against a bad Colts team.


Jacksonville @ Houston (-6)    (U44.5)

   The Jaguars have a long ways to go to be trusted with a win against good competition.


Eagles (-1) @ Tampa Bay    (O42)

   The Bucs are still too banged up to count on. The Eagles are likely to get A.J. Brown back and they sorely miss him.


Commanders (+.3.5) @ Arizona    (O49)

   Clash of mobile QBs and average defenses, going with the points.


Patriots @ San Francisco (-10)    (U40.5)

   the 49ers need to bounce back and this game is as good as any against a Patriots team that has an Oline problem.


Browns @ Las Vegas (+2.5)    (U36.5)

   I don't know if I wanna trust the Raiders to win it but the Browns are just not good and that is so weird with the roster they have, they really need Nick Chubb back pronto.


Chiefs (-7) @ LA Chargers     (O41.5)

   The Chargers have a banged up Justin Herbert and the Chiefs are getting all the calls.


Bills @ Baltimore (-2.5)    (O46.5)

   I don't know what's wrong with the Ravens, but if they don't pull the win this week, even against a tough Bills team, I might consider thinking the Ravens are in for a rebuild.


Titans (+2.5) @ Miami    (U37)

   This is the Titans chance to point their team in the right direction with a win against a Dolphins team that is missing its QB and no real backup choice.


Seahawks (+3.5) @ Detroit    (U46.5)

   This looks like its going to be a really good game, the Seahawks defense has played very good and the Lions have struggled to be consistent on both sides of the ball.

W3@IND: Crack of light beyond the muddy Oline

    The Bears let a win slip from their grasp, Anthony Richardson made enough bad plays to give the win wrapped in a bow and the Bears didn't want it. The Bears Oline is a problem once more, the coaches need to figure something out because they are close of ruining yet another QB.


   The offense struggled, again, more at running than passing, the Oline will be hard to fix if its a personnel issue, it might be. Want they can try is by making a switch at RB, push DeAndre Swift to backup duties and place Khalil Herbert in changer with Roschon Johnson as a change of pace and 3rd down back, Swift has done too little to consider keep feeding him the ball. Caleb Williams is continuing to make rookie mistakes but he was forced to throw the ball more than 50 times against the Colts which was crazy, but did show progress by doing so and connected with Rome Odunze and Cole Kmet for scores and threw very precise passes in the process, building from this would be great but an existing running attack would be better when talking about throwing so many passes behind an offense that cant run the ball so the defense knows you have to pass and headhunts your QB.

Upside players: Roschon Johnson helped plenty by moving the ball on the grounds with punishing yards, help block and even catching passes.

Downside players: I really don't know who from the OLine is doing worse.


   The defense had the Colts under control in the first half but started struggling stropping the run in the second half and all went downhill from there. They managed to halt the Colts to 3 scores but the Colts offense was really not playing that well. Needles to say I has a bit disappointed by them last week. Hope they can bounce back from this one.

Upside players: Jack Sanborn can really do his role of punishing run stuffing LB. 

Downside players: I getting a bit concerned about Montez Sweat, I haven't really seen him make plays, maybe there aren't going his way too much but hi is the guy for the defense and not showing up is not good.


   Next the Bears receive the very dangerous Rams and Matthew Stafford who are coming off a very impressive win against the 49ers, even when they have a banged up roster, they manage to pull out improbable wins, needles to say its going to be hell for the Bears to win this one, the defense will have to pressure Stafford more often than not, find answers to slow down the run, still the offense for the Bears are the real challenge and its all up to them to figure out how to start running the ball effectively.

domingo, 22 de septiembre de 2024

Week 3 picks

   OK I had a good week, 2 tied scores I will just eliminate no win nor loss. The Dolphins are in trouble, I expect Tua to retire for his own good. Holy hell, I expected the Vikings to not suck but didn't expect them to be good, and where did this Cardinals team come from?. I forgot I suspected the Cowboys to be not that good. The NFC South are a bunch of showoffs, Panthers are soooo screwed.  
Last week: 5-8 (38%)
Season: 8-20 (28%)


Chargers  @ Pittsburgh (-2.5)   (U35)

 With Justin Herbert hurt, its going to be tough for the Chargers to beat the Steelers defense.


Eagles @ New Orleans (-3)    (O49.5)

   The Saints look like a better team than the Eagles right now, A.J. Brown is sorely missed.


Giants (+6.5) @ Cleveland    (O38.5)

   The Browns Oline is banged up, the Giants Dline is their strenght and they only lost last week because they didnt have a kicker the whole game, the Browns offense is still a mistery.


Packers (+3) @ Tennessee    (U37)

   The Packers and Titans defenses are good, if Will Levis keeps playing like the last two games, I expect same results.


Texans @ Minnesota (+1.5)   (O46)

   The Vikings are playing very well and I do see them putting up a fight at home against a Texans team that hasn't looked elite yet.


Bears (+1) @ Indianapolis    (U44)

   If there's a game I see the Bears building on is this one, the Colts are a banged up at defense and Anthony Richardson is still looking to be an accurate passer.


Broncos @ Tampa Bay (-6)   (U41)

   This one should be Bucs all the way if not for injuries all over their roster, but I haven't seen enough of the Broncos to believe they can manage a win.


Dolphins @ Seattle (-4.5)    (U42)

The Dolphins will start their backup QB while Seattle is growing as a team game by game.


Panthers @ Las Vegas (-6)    (U40)

   The change at QB by the Panthers might mitigate the mistakes and play a more reserve game plan, still the Raiders have played good enough to beat a bad coached team.


Lions @ Arizona (+3)    (O51.5)

   The Cardinals impressed me last week, they looked so explosive, if they can show that type of game again, the Lions are in trouble, hell the whole NFL is in trouble.


49ers (-6) @ LAR    (U43.5)

   The 49ers got humbled last week, the Rams are hurt especially at WR. 


Ravens (-1) @ Dallas    (O47.5)

   The Cowboys showed who I thought they were, the Ravens need this game to bounce back on track.


Chiefs (-3) @ Atlanta    (O46.5)

   Atlanta showed they can win, still too early to believe they can take the champs.


Jaguars @ Buffalo (-5)    (U45.5)

   The Jaguars look lost, its another game the Bills can take advantage on at home to build on.


Commanders @ Cincinnati (-7.5)    (U47)

   The Commanders are not a good team yet and still are living growing pains, the Bengals will come out angry from last weeks loss.

sábado, 21 de septiembre de 2024

W2@HOU: Stuck in a time loop

    The Bears couldn't keep from shooting themselves in the foot, leaving Houston with an expected lose but that could have possibly been an upset if Caleb Williams didn't switch on to hero mode, the OLine could have helped him not get pummeled making him switch to hero mode.


   The offense wasn't functional once more with personnel choices that have Bears fandom in shambles, did all these FA players that got signed this year had a closure in their contract that stated that they were going to get a minimum of 80% of the snaps of each game or something? I feel like all these players were brought in because they know how to play Shane Waldron's playbook instead of him molding to what the team has to offer as a whole. There is no existence of a running attack which makes the offense look all one dimensional which puts a lot on Williams's plate as a rookie, it's just plain bad, again, need changes ASAP.

Upside players: D.J. Moore is still good.

Downside players: The whole offense had a bad game but Darnell Wright had an awful one to forget. 


   The defense is legit good, too bad it has to clean up for the poor offensive performance, for now the Bears are still the same ol Bears. They play the bend but don't break game very well, if the offense can just show life, this defense can win this team some games.

Upside players: Kyler Gordon is playing like a top slot corner which is not an easy thing to do. PROTECT ANDREW BILLINGS AT ALL COST.

Downside players: The Dline is very good at run stopping but the QB pressure, especially from the EDGE position, was missed in this game.


   Next up the Bears go to Indy, the Colts are a bit banged up and Anthony Richardson is contained TNT, until he calibrates his arm accuracy, I believe the Bears can take on this offense. The Bears offense has a chance to establish an identity against this Colts defense that will be missing some key players, this is the game where I expect the offense to show a pulse.

domingo, 15 de septiembre de 2024

Week 2 picks

    Started not good but not bad to my standards, hitting 3 games last week, the half point differentials where brutal . Speaking of brutal, as for unexpected surprises of last, the Panthers weren't supposed to look THAT BAD, the Browns officially have problems at QB and the Giants are who I thought they were. The Bengals are still in offseason mode and the Falcons are still falconing for some reason. Lets move on.

Last week: 3-12 (20%)


Saints @ Dallas (-6.5)    (O47)

   The Saints are looking like a good team by beating up on the poor Panthers, they go to Dallas banged up to take on a devastating Cowboys Dline and a well as a recently well payed Dak Prescott, its hard playing at the AT&T stadium, the Saints are going to show their true colors in this one.


   Colts @ Green Bay (+2.5)    (U41.5)

    Anthony Richardson made huge splash plays with his arm and pummeled defenders with his legs, I expect him to take more care of himself if he wants to continue putting up the good stat numbers. The Packers going without Jordan Love should hinder them but Matt LaFleur is a good coach and still has a good defensive core, its anyone's game but I am going with the home team (jinx),


Chargers (-4.5) @ Carolina    (U38.5)

   The Panthers need to show a pulls to make me believe in their team again, Bryce Young looked terrible. The Chargers are tuning down the pass and relying more with the run game just like Jim Harbaugh did in Michigan, if its sustainable while having Justin Herbert in case of emergency, its going to be hard for them not to win games.


Browns @ Jacksonville (-3)    (U31.5)

   Looks like the Browns wont be much of a threat offensively until Nick Chubb comes back from injury, Deshaun Watson is looking like another bust for the organization, its sad but also karma. The Jaguars are a solid team and have a shot to take this game by taking care of the ball.


Raiders @ Baltimore (-8)    (O41.5)

   I do believe Lamar Jackson will play better than he did last week, its the only thing the Ravens need to be elite. The Raiders are the same team from last year, solid defense wit not an ideal arm at QB to lead the offense.


Jets (-4) @ Tennessee    (O41)

   I expected more from the Jets, this game might be what they need to get it going. The Titans are not a bad team but if they make Will Levis keep playing hero ball and failing at it, they are not going to go far.


Giants @ Washington (-1.5)    (U43)

   Someone has to win right? There hope in the new, so I would expect Jayden Daniels and the Commanders to get better as a team and get this win.


Bucs (+7.5) @ Detroit    (U51.5)

   Not saying the Bucs are going to win but with the Lions a bit banged up, Baker Mayfield and his receiving core have enough to keep this team on Detroit's heels.


Seahawks @ New England (+3)    (U38.5.)

   The patriots played a solid game against the Bengals, I would expect this to continue against average teams like Seattle. The Seahawks still need to polish some stuff offensively, but defensively they have something going.


49ers (-4.5) @ Minnesota    (O46.5)

   The Vikings looked good against a bad team, but I do believe they will be a solid team this year, but not enough to take on an elite team like the 49ers even without Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers look like they can make any RB work in their system.


Rams (PK) @ Arizona    (O48)

   The Rams are a good team, its going to hurt them not having Puka Nacua but they still have enough weapons to go against anyone. The Cardinals still need for Kyler Murray to play a clean game to have a chance and that is as sure as a coin toss.


Steelers (-2.5) @ Denver    (U36.5)

   This is going to be a defensive struggle, I'm going with T.J. Watt and Chris Boswell giving the Steelers another win.


Bengals @ Kansas City (-6.5)    (O48)

   Joe Burrow might wake from his slumber against elite competition, but until they show some life, they aren't beating the reigning champions.


Bears @ Houston (-6)    (U45)

   Its still a wait and see when and if Caleb Williams snap out of his rookie status. C.J. Stroud and the Texans are too good to make the same mistakes the Titans did.


Falcons @ Philadelphia (-5.5)    (O46)

   What the hell Falcons, you're better that that right? I need to see a shootout here if I expect to believe this team is legit, win would be a statement which I think its a bit too much.

martes, 10 de septiembre de 2024

W1vsTitans: Familiar product, different outcome

    So the Bears won an ugly one, that is never a bad thing especially when it's a new team offensively and it's the start of the season. Down 17-3 at the half, they managed to shut down Will Levis and the Titans offense to 0 second half points. The defense and special teams came out of this game with 4 turnovers, 2 of them resulting in returned TDs. The Bears offense on the other hands was sloppy as hell adding 3 FGs to the scoreboard, 2 of them starting the drive on the opponent's field due to a kick return and a turnover by the defense. So basically same old Bears, at least until now. Still, as they say, it's better to be lucky than good, a win is a win, it's up to them if they take advantage and build from it by getting better each game they play, get as many ugly wins as you can as long as they find ways to be a better team from each one.


   The offense as stated struggles badly, there were plays to be made but botched it by not blocking good enough, not throwing with accuracy or players not being in the same page. Cole Kmet not being in the field often is something I didn't like,  Tyler Scott and Khalil Herbert not getting situational plays was not ideal, not using Roshon Johnson and Marcedes Lewis for short gains I didn't understand, so basically Im frustrated with the game plan and I hope it changes next week. Caleb Williams threw like a rookie, I need half a season to really worry, too early to tell with him. MY GOD POLES GET A CENTER.

Upside players: D.J. Moore likes football and it shows. It's good to see the Bears seem to have a dependable returner in DeAndre Carter. Cairo Santos keeps earning every penny.

Downside players: I'm already worried Coleman Shelton isn't good, he just may be not good enough, I would be considering reshuffling the interior OL sooner rather than later. As mentioned, Williams needs to take each snap as a learning experience. Velus Jones Jr. is not doing himself any favors playing like he did.


  The defense had a solid to average first half and an ideal second half. I expect for the sophomore's to give fans even better games hopefully. I really liked that Kevin Byard was nowhere no be found on the TV screen, meaning he was doing his job nicely. PROTECT BILLINGS AT ALL COST.

Upside players: Darrell Taylor and DeMarcus Walker where pleasant surprises, where real catalysts to the Bears turnaround.

Downside players: Austin Booker got the welcome to the NFL treatment very quickly, being a liability in the run game, more opportunities will come, take the lesson and move on.


   Next is a trip to Houston to take on C.J. Stroud and the Texans, it's going to be a tough one, they are coming off a great win against a stingy Colts team. The Bears would do wonders by keeping the score close with a continued good defensive performance and give Williams and OC Shane Waldron a chance to clean things up on the offensive side of the ball as much as possible.


domingo, 8 de septiembre de 2024

Week 1 picks

    I'm totally off this year, almost forgot to make my picks, cant let the opportunity of being completely wrong slip up. Week one is possibly the best chance to get picks right using the handicap because no one really knows what's up with the teams, so points are just off starting the season. Lets see what we got for the openers for this 2024 season.


Jaguars @ Miami (-3.5)    (O49.5)

   I expect both offenses to go in all cylinders, especially the Dolphins to just stack points on this game.


Steelers @ Atlanta (-4)    (O42.5)

   This is it Falcons, you have a high octane offense at home going against a very good defense with a questionable offense, there's no excuses not to hit the ground running.


Cardinals @ Buffalo (-6.5)    (U46)

   I don't expect the Cardinals to be good, I don't expect the Bills to be great. There for the maths add up to the Bills winning.


Titans @ Chicago (-4)    (U43.5)

   Young QBs going at it against some stout defenses, I expect the Bears defense to continue where they left off and get their offense as much chances possible to get it done.


Vikings (-1) @ NY Giants    (U42)

   This is going to be a sloppy game, I just don't see how the Giants win without a stellar performance from their defense on every game, so I'm going with the Vikings until I see the Giants pulse.


Panthers @ New Orleans (-3.5)    (O41.5)

   I don't think the Panthers will be pushovers this season, still I think its going to take some games for them to adjust.


Patriots @ Bengals (-7.5)    (O41)

   The Patriots might be a pesky defense to go against, but the Bengals should run over this team, just too much offense.


Texans (-3) @ Indianapolis    (O49)

   This should be a good game, going with the Texans just because of where they got last year, but I am a believer in Anthony Richardson.


Broncos @ Seattle (-6.5)    (O42)

   Its still hard to win in Seattle and they have a good team. The Broncos have a good roster, problems has been the solution at QB, its a wait and see how it pans out with Bo Nix.


Raiders @ LA Chargers (-3)    (O40.5)

   The Raiders are going to struggle a lot this year. The Chargers should be a better led team this year.


Cowboys @ Cleveland (-2)    (U42)

   I expect offensive struggles, there's something that bothers me about the Cowboys, I believe they are not going to be as good as last year. The Browns are so good on paper if it weren't for the doubt of not knowing if they have the right QB, I can so relate.


Commanders @ Tampa Bay (-3.5)    (U42)

   Jayden Daniles is going to get tested against a tough Bucs DL. A seasoned and healthier Baker Mayfield might be too much.


Rams (+4.5) @ Detroit     (U53)

   I have much respect for Mathew Stafford and Shean McVay, they can compete with anyone with this team. The Lions have plunged the holes they had in defense but if they play all their rookie corners, they will most probably pass thought some tough growing pains against this team.


Jets (+4) @ San Francisco    (O43.5)

   It all depends if Aaron Rodgers stays on the field, the Jests are loaded and should go toe to toe against the niners.

domingo, 1 de septiembre de 2024

Offseason Rants: Predicting the 2024 Bears season record

   Unfortunately, I almost got the record right last year, my pessimism had them one game lower as my floor. Ryan Poles shows a better team this year at least on paper, a new promising QB to keep us on our toes and see if he can give this team the chance of being in the mix with the big boys of the league.

Week 1: vs Titans

   It's a good team to start against when having a Bears roster so full of new faces on offense, it's good to go against a team that is basically in the same scenario. The Titans defense is not too shabby but it can be a good starting experience for Caleb Williams to go against as his first pro game. The Bears defense will go against a Titans offense that has talented players, but Will Levis is still in the process of showing if he is the right QB. Both QBs will have to show good poise to give their team the best chance of winning, but I consider Chicago's defense to be better and help finish this game.

Probable outcome: Bears win.


Week 2: @ Houston

   Tough matchup against a good team at their home, a young team on top of that, so their arrow probably is pointing up as the season progresses. If C.J. Stroud continues where he left off last year, it's not gonna look good for the Bears.

Probable outcome: Bears lose.


Week 3: @ Indianapolis

   I didn't realize the Bears get almost the whole AFC south division in one go, all of them before the half of the season. Anyway, the Colts led by Anthony Richardson, who is coming back from injury, are no easy foe. Solid on the offensive side of the ball and the defense has a promising DL. It could definitely go either way, but I will be optimistic and think that Williams will help get this one in the bag.

Probable outcome: Bears win.


Week 4: vs Rams

   I have much respect for Matthew Stafford and the Rams organization, they showed last year that they have a solid team and can go toe to toe with the best in the league. They bring a very powerful offense and a highly promising DL, much like the previous game against the Colts, it could go either way, Staffords experiences and Sean McVay's coaching might be too much.

Probable outcome: Bears lose.


Week 5: vs Panthers

   I do expect the Panthers to improve this year, especially their QB Bryce Young, still the OL has a ways to go to see if they can gel. The departure or their star EDGE Brian Burns does make the defense look a bit depleted. It could turn out to be a tough matchup but I expect the Bears to come out on top.

Probable outcome: Bears win.


Week 6: vs Jaguars

   London is feeling like the Jaguars second home. It's been a rocky career for Trevor Lawrence who flashes the potential he showed in college but has struggled mightily to show progress, be it by bad coaching or a depleted roster or both. They have more pieces in place this year with good pass rushers, LBs and a solid duo of safeties. On the offensive side, they have weapons to do damage, it's up to the Oline to give Lawrence time. Another tough game, making the trip to London makes it a bit tougher, maybe enough to drop this one.

Probable outcome: Bears lose.


Week 7: BYE

   Much needed rest to reset and come back to play against some beatable opponents in the next weeks.


Week 8: @ Washington

   On paper the Commanders look like one of the easier opponents on this schedule, rookie QB Jayden Daniels will have half a season of experience with Terry McLaurin which will be his go to guy. The DL line is still a force to be reckoned with, focused on the interior part of the line where the Bears look to have questions at. Nevertheless, the Bears should come out of Washington with the win.

Probable outcome: Bears win.


Week 9: @ Arizona

   There's high hopes that the Cardinals can get competitive this year, I'm not one of those believers. Kyle Murray can be special but also I consider him limited, he might already have created some chemistry with rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr, but with what I consider an average defense and lack of offensive weapons and reconstructed OL, I would assume the Bears get the job done in the desert.

Probable outcome: Bears win


Week 10: vs Patriots

   This can be a weird team where they seem to not have enough but manage to do enough to pull a win from out of nowhere. I will be expecting the Bears to be an improved team that will play in structure like the Patriots would, but play it with more high end talent.

Probable outcome: Bears win


Week 11: vs Packers

   Sadly the win streak would end in the worst way. The Packers are building a very solid team, the emergence of good play by Jordan Love makes this team a playoff contender in the league, if this keeps up, the Bears are most probably not ready to handle this level of talent quite yet, they are playing them at home and a win here would speak volumes, but I just don't see it yet.

Probable outcome: Bears lose.


Week 12: vs Vikings
 
   Will Sam Darnold really give the Vikings a shot? He does have a good offensive supporting cast behind him and the defense is not what it was but pieces were added to make it look promising. I'm going with the home team this time around, but the Vikings probably will be a feisty team.

Probable outcome: Bears win.


Week 13: @ Detroit

   The Lions are legit, they will probably win this division with the team they were able to assemble, their secondary was their achilles heel and they went all in at the draft to try and fix it and they probably did, they will just need some time to adjust. Their WR room is very slim though, an injury to Amon-Ra St. Brown or Sam LaPorta would really hurt them. The Bears seemed to have the Lions number, but I doubt it continues being the same.

Probable outcome: Bears lose.


Week 14: @ San Francisco

   Here's another opponent that has all figured out, only thing that they are missing is how to win the Super Bowl. Just a powerhouse of a team, something the Bears should strive for.

Probable outcome: Bears lose.


Week 15: @ Minnesota

   Expecting the Vikings to be no pushovers Im giving them the home game win as a tough divisional rival. Still it shouldn't be an easy win if at all. 

Probable outcome: Bears lose.


Week 16: vs Lions

   Like I said, I dont think the Bears own the Lions anymore, maybe next year.

Probable outcome: Bears lose.


Week 17: vs Seahawks

   Good thing this game is not in Seattle. The Seahawks are not a bad team, but they have some holes to figure out on both sides of the ball just as the Bears will need to do this season. I expect Shane Waldron to tip this game to the Bears favor against his old team.

Probable outcome: Bears win.


Week 18: @ Green Bay

   Unless the Packers rest some starters, I don't expect the Bears to pull off a in Green Bay. I wish this was the year the Bears stop being owned by the Packers but it might take one more year.

Probable outcome: Bears lose.


   So, at the end of the season I have the Bears with a 8-9 record, floor would be 6-10, ceiling would be 10-7 possibly getting to the postseason where anything can happen. Obviously my floor would be very disappointing and would mean a lot of work is still needed. An 8 win season doesn't necessarily mean that it was a bad season, as long as Caleb Williams looks to be progressing and games were won because of him, then there is hope and the rebuild can continue its current course.

2024 Chicago Bears roster

   As much as I need this season to start to watch my favorite sport and team to help me vent from certain things in life, I just hope they hit mid expectations and not just add stress in it, but nobody forced me into Bears fandom so all the blame is on me. My wife on the other hand might have something to say about it though.

   In a nut shell I can say with conviction that this 2024 Bears team didn't get worse, I feel pretty confident that it should be better and its debatable that it can be a good enough team to get to the post season, but as always it depends if the right QB is at the helm, history has not been kind to Bears fans old and young, believing and hoping are things in short supply right now, at this stage of my 20 years following this team I just got to see it to start feeling it again.

Here's the 2024 Chicago Bears 53 man roster,

QBs - Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent

   Williams showed he can be flashy by extending plays and hit off platform throw's, that's great but I just want to see him do the simple stuff, you know the three step drop back, see it and rip it in a consistent basis, I know this is not all on him, the Oline, receivers and coaches need to all do their job to make it look simple, preseason Williams didn't show me this, I will have to wait for regular season Williams to see it. Bagent in the other hand looked awesome dismantling 2nd and 3rd stringers with good rhythm and poise, time will tell if that kind of play will happen in games that count by the starters.

 Austin Reed will continue being a teammate via the practice squad, he showed good play in the preseason adding to the belief that the coaching seems to be working for this group.


RBs - D'Andre Swift, Khalil Herbert, Roshon Johnson, T. Homer, Khari Blasingame, 

   Solid running backs room, I would expect a big run by committee with Herbert getting much of the snaps with Blasingame on 21 personnel, Swift being the option on single back packages and motion him to empty sets, Johnson should be the short yardage and goaline back. I was surprised to see Homer stick, I believed with Velus Jones as a optional back/wideout he would be out. Also, it was surprising that Blasingame got a spot too which really does tell that OC Shane Waldron isn't gonna play a bunch of 13 personnel. 

Ian Wheeler will follow the team but unfortunately will be from IR, he showed dangerous speed running the ball this preseason.


WRs - D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, Tyler Scott, V. Jones, D. Carter

   The top spots are no surprise, it was good to see Scott make plays in the preseason and looked like a reliable #4 wideout. The last two spots were where the true battle was being fought, Jones was given a needed boost by making him a dual threat as a WR/RB a la Cordarrelle Patterson, a good showing in his last preseason game won him a spot, Carter will be counted more as a returner than a wideout. 

Spots got open with the injuries to Dante Pettis and Nsimba Webster, who will follow the team via IR. Preseason hero Collin Johnson and newcomer Samori Toure will join the PS.


TEs - Cole Kmet, Gerald Everett, Marcedes Lewis

   No surprises here either, Kmet has been awesome so far getting better and better every year, if he can be stable and play how he played last year it would be enough, but if he can still get better it would give Williams one big surefire safety blanket, potentially giving Williams one of the greatest receiving groups of the league, this isn't even counting on if Everett can contribute who has shown to be a good receiver of the football. Lewis comes back to pummel defensive players and open lanes for running backs for one more year. I really hate that they missed on retaining rookie Brenden Bates, I thought he would end up getting Homer´s spot with Velus as the other RB and another receiver like Collin Johnson getting Blasingame´s spot, but as I said, looks like Waldron has other plans. 

Stephen Carlson will join via PS, he showed decent play in preseason games.


OL - Braxton Jones, Teven Jenkins, Shelton Coleman, Nate Davis, Darnell Wright, Kiran Amegadjie, Ryan Bates, Doug Kramer, Bill Murray, M. Pryor

   Williams as the biggest question mark for the potential of this offense is debatable alongside the Oline, can it be good enough to let Williams get confrontable enough to be an NFL QB in time? Jones and Wright have demonstrated to be good enough tackles to go with the best of the league. Same could be said for Jenkins and Davis when healthy which has been a concern in their carreers. With Bates nursing an injury, the biggest question mark is how will veteran Shelton Coleman perform for his rookie QB? No one knows if Bates is the favorite and will get his job back when healthy or be a backup G if Jenkins or Davis get dinged up, so a lot is riding on the inside OL once more which I consider AGAIN to be the make or brake of this offensive core, no QB will perform well if he gets pummeled frequently from interior defenders crashing in. Rookie Amegadjie will have a long road to see the field coming back from his college injury, Pryor should be first in line if a tackle is needed at the beginning of the season. I would assume Kramer got a spot as insurance until Bates gets better. The cut of Ja'Tyre Carter surprised me, I didn't expect Murray to make it, he might be a temporary player as well.

Larry Borom is designated to return from IR when healthy, with him and Bates healthy it might mean Kramer´s spot and move him to the PS, pushing one of Theo "Canadian Eagle" Benedet or Jake Curhan out of the roster.


DL - Montez Sweat, Andrew Billings, Gervon Dexter, DeMarcus Walker, Zacch Pickens, Austin Booker, David Hardy

   This group can get better as the season progresses, Sweat showed he can be the complete package as a rusher and help on run support, but the potential showed by rookie Booker and Hardy in the preseason was very intriguing, if either can be the answer at the other EDGE position alongside Sweat, it would solidify the whole defensive line as a true threat to many teams, along with the expectation that Dexter will continue to get better in his sophomore season. Billings is as important as the others mentioned as the big run stuffing defender who makes it easier for the others to concentrate on one on ones, you do not want to leave Billings one on one very often. Walker is a reliable and versatile veteran that can make big plays at times. Pickens will be counted on to rotate in the inside, it's a wait and see if he can be a reliable player that can go in to give his teammates a breather.

Jacob Martin is designated to return from IR, but I really don't see him pushing anyone out of this group right now, don't know if he can be placed directly to the PS where he could possibly replace Jamree Kromah or Byron Cowart.


LB - T.J. Edwards, Tremaine Edmunds, Jack Sanborn, Amen Ogbongbemiga, Noah Sewell

   It's incredible to think that this group can get better depending if Edmunds feels more confortable with the system this year, it felt that he was still thinking and not just reacting. Edwards and Sanborn are just good headhunters. Ogbongbemiga and Sewell look like good backups but I prefer to see them perform only on special teams.

Micah Baskerville returns to the PS for one more year, made some good plays on preseason games, yet his size still limits him a bit. Carl Jones makes it as well, didn't really see much play from him.


CB - Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Kyler Gordon, Terell Smith, Josh Blackwell, Jaylon Jones

   This can end up being a great group of corners, Johnson is getting considered to be one of the best shutdown corners, Stevenson as a number two and Gordon as the nickle played very well last year, both are considered to get even better this year. Smith had a very good performance this preseason as well as veterans Blackwell and Jones, they make this group have solid depth.

Preseason hero Reddy Stewart and Ro Torrence join via the PS.


S - Jaquan Brisker, Kevin Byard III, Jonathan Owens, Elijah Hicks

   For me Oline is the question mark at offense and on defense is the Safety position, Byard was brought to fill in for departed Eddie Jackson's big shoes, can he do it? Can Brisker keep himself healthy with is hard hitting style of play? Owens and Hicks could replace Brisker if necessary and believe they can do a decent enough job but what worries me is how good and how fast can Byard adapt to this defense? Looks like he has been nursing an injury and hasn't practice much, so this only raises more concern.

Happy to see Tarvarius Moore make it to the PS, liked how he played on this years preseason games.


K - Cairo Santos,  P - Tory Taylor,  LS - Scott Daley

   Team is set on kicker with Santos reliable leg. Taylor has shown he has talent pinning the ball deep with his accurate kicks, this will very much help the teams development if it means giving the offense the ball more often. 

With Patrick Scales designated to return from IR, Daley will take his place until he is back healthy.


   There's not much not to like about this team expect for the need of experience which translates to expectations that many people have for the young players, they have a shot to elevate this team to a contending unit. Still it might be too early to happen if at all, if it doesn't happen is most probably because the QB is not set yet, the talent is there for Williams to have some kind of success or at least get positive growth form this season, evaluations will come and confirm if Ryan Poles has this team truly going in the right direction, as of right now on paper, it does seem so.

viernes, 24 de mayo de 2024

2024 NFL rosters Post draft

   With the 2024 draft on the rear view mirror, teams will slow down a bit on taking players via FA or trade unless their plans got spoiled in a bad way on draft weekend. I don't expect big news from here to the start of the season, so I made a roster arrangement using ourlads.com info on current state of NFL rosters and do a little evaluation on every division as I see it, listing teams best to worst and starting with the toughest division to end with the weakest. Heck, I'll even throw a draft grade just for fun (for the record, A+ are stupid).


AFC NORTH

RAVENS
   The Ravens have been so good at the draft that they don't need to move around, just pick up dudes and go kick ass. This team has been very good at the draft for many years now, rarely do you see a big need at any position and if they do have one, they have plenty of ammunition to plug it with a draft pick. I honestly didn't expect them to go corner with their first pick but that was my fault, once they picked Nate Wiggins I did see the need for him, on top of that they got T.J. Tampa in the 5th and that is just not fair, getting Beau Brade as a UDFA is just sick, he  might end up being the NB they need. With their second selection they got needed competition for their RT position by picking OL Roger Rosengarten. They really needed some help at WR to have a 3rd option and they found it by selecting Devontez Walker in the 4th round. The addition of EDGE Addisa Issac is so Ravens. Grade: A
   This offense is ready to go, Lamar Jackson behind a solid OL and a variety of wideouts, Derrick Henry in the backfield, its scary good.
   The defense is really good enough and could just get better as the season progresses and the rookies get more comfortable. They really are the team to beat in the north.
  

BENGALS
   Overall the Bengals had a solid draft, picking up players at positions of need and even got depth without having to move from their original 10 picks. They did a good job of picking a high quality prospect in Amarius Mims to insure if one of the vets goes down. They got needed WR help in the third round picking up Jermain Burton, a need with the departure of Tyler Boyd and the uncertainty of Tee Higgins. DTs Kris Jenkins and Jackson McKinnley fell into a good situation where they can learn behind good vets, CB Josh Newton might get a chance to push for a starting spot at CB. They went double dipping at TE with Erick All and Tanner McLachlan, I like the later pick more but both seem to be candidates for ST or help as blocking inline TEs. Their final pick in C Matt Lee is a good depth piece. Grade: A
   The Bengals need Joe Burrow to stay healthy if they want a change at the post season and the draft helped they get hopefully enough depth to assure Burrow stays in one piece.
   The Bengals did a good job to fill holes on defense with FA and the draft especially at the DL, this team is going to be tough to beat. 


BROWNS
   The Browns had the least value picks on this draft, still managed to get three good players with their top picks. With their highest pick they got a disruptor in DT Michael Hall Jr. and will be a good rotational player for the DLine. Then they added OG Zak Zinter to develop behind a good veteran OLine as well as newcomer WR Jamari Thrash for depth if Jerry Jeudy doesn't pan out. They still seem to need help at defense and not place all their eggs on the Fa they got. Grade: B
   The Browns will go as far as Deshaun Watson takes them, last year he didn't manage to go very far but it might change if he stays healthy, he has a great supporting cast to go against any team. 
   The defense is all about the pass rushers and corners, they are the difference makers on this team, they might struggle against the run.
   

STEELERS
   This years draft for the Steelers was a very good one and can very well help Mike Tomlin to continue going above .500, only needs for Russell Wilson or Justin Fields to play more consistently than Kenny Pickett did. They started by drafting an upgrade at LT in Troy Fautanu, a future pro C in Zach Frazier and a quality backup G in Mason McCormick, and still got good help for the WR room by drafting Roman Wilson. With a mid round pick they added MLB Payton Wilson to pair up with Patrick Queen as a very promising rushing duo. Grade: A
   This team is not where they would want to be with all the other teams in the division getting better, but the Steelers are one of those teams you don't wish them luck because they will beat you with it. They will not be a bad team, it all will depend if one of both picked up QBs can get the job done early and often and they really did plenty to help them out by drafting a group of promising Olinemen. It might take time for the coaches to figure it out but if they do, this can be a good offensive unit.
  The Steelers pass rush is what keeps them in on all games and by adding Payton Wilson to the MLB aside Patrick Queen, the pass rush can get even better.


OVERALL: There's not a lot separating these teams if not the state of the QB position is what makes the difference.




NFC NORTH

LIONS
   We have entered the twilight zone where the Lions didn't have to do much at the draft to keep being the top dog in their division. Even still, they manage to get better going double dipping on their most pressing need, going up at a high cost to pick up my top prospect CB in Terrion Arnold and following by drafting Enis Rakestraw with their two top picks, for some reason they traded away a 2025 R3 to pick up OT Giovanni Manu, they followed it by going up with a not so good trade to pick S Sione Vaki and finished the draft by picking up good depth and both DL and OL with Mekhi Wingo and Christian Mahogany respectively. I got nothing against the players for the exception of Manu but the trade values were not good, but you gotta do what you gotta do to get your guys I guess. Grade: B-
   The offense has their leader set in Jared Goff with his new contract signed, Goff has traveled a long and curious road to get to a dependable QB on a good coached team, I felt they were missing some extra help on the WR group, guess someone already on the team will have to step up to get attention off Amon-Ra St. Brown to do his thing.
   It all depend on how soon the secondary can gel with Arnold and Rakestraw Jr., once they do, this defense looks to be lights out.


PACKERS
   They are still a good organization that does some weird things in the draft but ultimately end up getting what they need. They needed a OT, they got Jordan Morgan with their first pick, why Morgan? Packers. They needed LB, double dip on LBs Edgerin Cooper and Ty'Ron Hooper, same position but different flavors. They need a S, they go triple dipping this time with Javon Bullard, Evan Williams and Kitan Oladapo. They lose Aaron Jones? They get one of my favorite RBs in MarShawn Lloyd. They prioritize in OL to protect their QB, they get C Jacob Monk and OT Travis Glover, who? Packers and they will probably start in 3 years and be good. They bullshit into QBs, draft QB Michael Pratt. Hey we still got one pick, whos on the board everybody forgot? Freaking Penn ST CB1 Kalen King because why not and Packers. Grade: A-
   So looks like Jordan Love is a good QB, aint that swell, only hole this offense looks to have is going to be Morgan's learning curve.
   The defense is a solid unit that still needs to gel but the top skills are there to result in a good unit.


BEARS
   Too little ammo to plug all the needs, but the Bears managed to come out of the draft with a good combo with their two first rounders. The obvious was answered with the first overall pick by drafting QB Caleb Williams who will be the new hope for the Bears franchise to pull them out of QB purgatory, with their second first rounder they could have gone in various routes, it ended up somewhat scripted that WR Rome Odunze was bound to be a Bear all this time. Other picks in OT Kiran Amegadjie and EDGE Austin Booker are good depth pieces to see if they can turn out to be impactful players, one that I really expect to be impactful sooner rather than later is P Tory Taylor, a 4th for a special teamer, well I will remember that Devin Hester was a second round special teams player that is in the Hall of Fame now and hope Taylor has half of his success at the least. Grade: B+
   Caleb Williams will dictate how good this offense ends up to be this season, improvement is all that we con wish for, he has a good enough OL that needs to stay healthy, great wideouts and a versatile running backs group. Main concern is who and how good will the C be.
   The defense ended in a good note last year, its still a wait and see if it continues, again health will be a main cause of their early success.


VIKINGS
   The Vikings where in a better spot draft capital wise than the Bears and managed to make some questionable moves in the first round, their decision to go up one spot for their QB J.J. McCarthy by giving a bit more than needed is understandable, but the move they made to go up to draft EDGE Dallas Turner, who I understand is a need but not necessarily a fit, is a bit more difficult to back up considering the pick value they gave away, especially the future picks. Picking up CB Khyree Jackson was a good one and although they did draft some help for the OL which was needed, OT Walter Rouse and C Michael Jurgens are not names I'm familiar with. Grade: D+
   McCarthy has enough to survive this season if placed immediately behind center, the OL might be something to keep a close eye on. 
   The defense might struggle often but its average at worst, they have enough vets mixed with talented youth to create some mismatches.


OVERALL:  There is too much talent in Detroit and Green Bay to say this division is close but if someone has a chance, its the improved Chicago Bears, especially when it seems they have the Lions number.



AFC EAST

JETS
   They really moved around at the draft and finished with five trades made, one of those netting them a 3rd rounder for 2025, the rest where very on point in value so they must be happy with that specific result. The Jets set off to draft insurance players starting by picking OT Olu Fashanu to assure the OL remains as minimally intact as possible. The addition of WR Malachi Corley gives them a good slot player but also someone to step up if Mike Williams isn't healthy enough. Drafting QB Jordan Travis is smart, he is a very ready QB with limited weapons, he might be good enough to maintain the boat from sinking if Aaron Rodgers goes down again for some short amount of time. Double dipping at RB drafting Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis might be a sign of heavy running which is something Rodgers had at Green Bay. Grade: A
   This team wasn't far away from being the toughest team in the division, they plunged some holes in FA and got plenty of insurance players in the draft, they look ready for anyone.
   Defensively they didn't need to do much but not adding a S might have been a mistake, but with a oozing talent at the front seven and a lock corner on one size, there is plenty of talent to cover some minor details.


DOLPHINS
   This team really wants to get to the QB, adding EDGE Chop Robinson with their first pick and Mohamed Kamara in the 5th round. Smart move drafting OT Patrick Paul with their 2nd rounder who doesn't need to play right away and can maybe replace Austin Jackson next year. They ended up using a 2025 3rd rounder to get Jaylen Wright in the 4th round and I wasn't a fan of the move, they already have major talent at RB and Wright is a big boom or bust prospect in my eyes at the spot where they got him. Getting both WRs Malik and Tahj Washington so late is criminal making the WR room feel very stacked. I feel they missed adding a talented TE but they wont be short on pass catchers this year. Grade B+
    Some teams might slow this offense down, but the only thing stopping them will be themselves in winter.
   The defense has some concerns at DL, they might struggle against the run, but can compensate it with their pass rush.


BILLS
   It was a good idea to trade down with the intent of getting more picks to have more bodies on this roster, but did they really needed to begin with the Chiefs in the first round? At the end of the day they only amassed one additional pick with the four moves they made and gave a 5th rounder for a 2025 4th, which is good but they really need help NOW. They needed a WR and got Keon Coleman finally with their highest pick, they also needed S help and drafted Cole Bishop which I'm not a fan off getting him this high. Offensive depth help came in RB Ray Davis and C Sedrick Van Pran-Granger who are good picks. I just done know the guys they picked and feel they didn't help the defensive side as much as I would liked. Grade: C+
   The Bills window is closing, their roster is starting to show some needs on various areas, they are still a respectable team and they have Josh Allen, but they aren't what they used to be.
   The front seven looks good, only time will tell if the secondary can hold on.


PATRIOTS
   They didn't make much noise at the draft, going back in the second round only 3 spots to better their high 5th rounder and convert it to a mid 4th, a good value move but the only move done, overall their diversification of picks to fill up the depth chart was decent. They started with the right decision by drafting Drake Maye who should be a good QB once he is placed behind center, may not be this year and that would be a sound decision as well, this might not be the most ready Oline to play they guy that will probably be your future franchise player. The receiving got help with the additions of WRs Ja'Lynn Polk and Jevon Baker along with TE Jaheim Bell. Drafting OT Caeden Wallace in the 3rd was a need but not the player I expected them to pick, they followed a good trend of drafting OL help by picking OG Layden Robinson. The rumors of drafted QB Joe Milton of changing to TE is interesting, sure hope to see that cannon of an arm used in some trick play. Feel they missed in drafting S help. Grade: B-
   This team will likely not be competing for much this year, but are placing good pieces on the foundation for the future.
   The defense was very solid last year and possibly will continue to be so with the additions made in FA, they might have lost Jack Jones but get Christian Gonzalez back from injury, they didn't add big names to it at the draft and hopefully this wont impact them much.


OVERALL: The Dolphins are just too talented, but once winter hits, this division might be even tighter than at the start of the season. If the Jets can get a lead in the win column by then, they can cruise to the post season.
   


NFC SOUTH

FALCONS
   I mean they did address defense with the next top four picks, Kirk Cousins IS coming back from an injury and is old, so maaaaaybeeee drafting a plug and play QB who is kind of old for a rookie to get drafted #8 overall is a good idea? The Falcons stole the spotlight by doing this and went "all in", in a way, by drafting QB Michael Penix with their first pick sending a statement that this team can go all the way and if Cousins dies they have a solution for it. it just so happens to be an uber expensive decision, not to mention that the move they made to go up for DT Ruke Orhorhoro was, welp, questionably bad. Grade: C
   Its a mighty explosive offense that only needs Cousins body to endure the season to achieve big things.
   Defensively they could get better depending on this years defensive haul, still its a big if.


BUCCANEERS
   The Bucs had a sound draft, they could have tried to bolster the OL a bit more but the pick of OT/OG/C Graham Barton can plug whichever need on the line they think they need solving, DE Chris Braswell bring a good motor to an already solid front seven, CB Tykee Smith and WR Jalen McMillan will try and plug holes at NB and Slot respectively. Overall a very decent draft. Grade: A-
   Baker Mayfield is a good QB but time will tell if he is good enough to take the Bucs offense to the post season, they have the weapons to get there.
   The defense has enough personnel to go against anyone on the league, most pressing need is for Smith to learn to play the position on this squad.


SAINTS
   The Saints didn't have much ammo in the case of value picks, they gave a chunk away to go up and draft CB KoolAid McKinstry for some reason. Their first pick in OT Taliese Fuaga was a good pick, right now he is slotted to be the LT but I would assume he will play inside, if not, the Saints needed more help at OL. They got an interesting backup QB in Spencer Rattler who con be good insurance if anything happened to Derek Carr. Other than that, drafting Khristian Boyd was a good one to add depth to a questionable DL. Grade: C+
   Same story, can Carr constantly be the answer for the Saints offense? If they can shuffle the OL enough to be functional, they can compete in this division.
   The defense has to do the same, what's the best combination of players to start for this DL? I believe they have a problem at the S position that could be reasonable to keep an eye on.


PANTHERS
   I had to go back and confirm the trade the Panther did with the Rams, they fleeced the Rams, period. I don't know why they felt necessary to move one spot to draft WR Xavier Leggett, I mean he was a need but you can forget the two nitpicks of moves they made with the one they did with the Rams, just wow. The other trade up that didn't benefit them in value by just a bit was to get my best ranked RB in Jonathon Brooks who might not be ready to play yet due to injury but they can shelf him for a while and reap the benefits later. They did the Jets a favor with a trade where they lost a bit of value, doesn't matter because they FLEECED THE RAMS. Picking up LB Trevin Wallace, TE Ja'Tavion Sanders and CB Chau Smith-Wade for depth were good moves. Grade: A-
   The Panthers bought a OL in FA to try and protect Bryce Young a bit more, they gave him two new weapons to play with and a solid running backs group, your move young man.
   The defense is solid at best, they tried to upgrade via FA as well so its a wait and see if it pans out.


OVERALL: The Falcons are the clear favorites but this division has always been fierce, and bad, so anything can happen.



AFC SOUTH

TEXANS
   This team came out of no where last year thanks to their rookie first round players., his year they had no first rounder, lets see how they continue building without one. With their highest pick they drafted CB Kamari Lassiter who is slotted to be the NB, I don't know if he is going to take Desmond King's spot that easily. They follow it with more help in the secondary with FS Calen Bullock, both picks look like future assets or depth than day one starters. Draftin OT Blake Fisher in the second round is an ideal pick to try and solidify the RT spot. I like that they drafted ex OSU teammate TE Cade Stover to reunite with C.J. Stroud. I don't see no slash picks made this year and the trades they made to move around didn't benefit them in value, but the picks made are solid depth at least.. Grade: B
   Its gonna be real interesting to see Stroud's sophomore year and see if he can keep up the numbers, his supporting cast got better so he should be able to manage consistency.
   At defense I felt they needed help at IDL and LB, they did pick up some guys but I honestly don't know how good they are, they did go heavy in FA to try and fill the gaps, we will see if it was enough in a very tight division.


JAGUARS
   The Jaguars move in the first round paid off, picking up needed help in WR Brian Thomas Jr. while trading 5 spots down to the 23rd pick and getting mid round picks for next year was excellent value, rest of their draft they stayed put and focused almost all their assets on defense for depth in DTs Maason Smith and Jordan Jefferson, CB Jarrian Jones and EDGE Myles. They did great with their work in the first round, after that was nothing spectacular but solid. Grade: A-
   This team looks decent, it needs Trevor Lawrence to help push it to the next level, they got some OLine and WR help in FA, time will tell if the where the right pieces to complete this offense.
   The defense has some pieces at EDGE, LB and S but still lacks some big time players, they went dipping for it in FA as well but I don't know if it will be enough.


TITANS
   Not enough picks to plug all the holes on the roster, its always smart to pick OL help to protect your young QB, OT J.C. Latham was the selection to try and protect the blindside, though he played primarily RT in college. More help in the trenches in the form of a massive man in DT T'Vondre Sweat to clog the middle of the DL, a pair of LBs in Cedric Gray and Jarvis Brownlee Jr., interestingly the later is slotted as a NB. Anything that hits from this draft will be a plus for this team that need at least one more year of offseason to take shape. Grade: B+
   I expect for Will Levis to at least have enough time behind this OL to find his trio of veteran WRs or they can always establish the run with a good RBs group.
   The defense is a whole other story, this is an unfinished product in the front seven, Jeffrey Simmons will not be able to do everything even if the secondary plays out of their mind which they are capable.


COLTS
   The Colts made moves at the draft to help out their unproven young franchise QB by getting him a promising WR in Adonai Mitchell and depth at OL by picking up Matt Gonclave and Tannor Bartolini with their top half of picks. They when pass rush with their first pick drafting  EDGE Laiatu Latu to bolster the DL a bit more. I thought they needed coverage help, while they did draft 2 Safeties and a CB but no LBs, I just don't know if that will be enough to upgrade those areas. Grade: B+
   The offense will be as good as Anthony Richardson shows progression, that will have to start by taking more care of himself at the pocket and when scrambling, he has a good established OL with weapons around him to do enough damage in this division.
   The defense has a chance to have a dominant DL if their young players can contribute often, what is worrisome with this team is if the back seven will do their part by giving the DL enough time to pressure the QB.


OVERALL: Honestly, the Titans might be the worst of the bunch and the Texans the high risers, but there is no clear winner here, teams are an injury away or a rising star in wait from flipping the tables.



NFC WEST

49ERS
   They really must like Ricky Pearsall to draft him in the first round, he has a good skill set but there were other dudes that looked better, still the niners already have a good receiving group so he doesn't need to do much to start his career unless Brandon Aiyuk leaves. The niners decided to get depth in the secondary by drafting CB Renardo Green and S Malik Mustapha who are good players and are needed now, but I was assuming they would help their aging front seven as well. Offensively they drafted OT Dominic Puni, who will possibly convert to OG, and RB Issac Guerrendo, a bruising runner to change this up in the RBs group. Grade: B+
   Brock Purdy brings it back with much of the same unit from last year to dominate the division.
   The defense is getting old and could be the reason the niners window closes soon, but for now its a solid unit and ready to giving one more go.


SEAHAWKS
   The Seahawks opt to bolster the trenches by picking DT Byron Murphy and OG Christian Haynes, both strong and high motor players. Other than both CBs in Nehemiah Pritchett and D.J. James who will be depth players, there's not much I can tell from the rest of the Seahawks draft. Grade: B+
   Can Geno Smith replicate last years success with this offensive unit which looks very solid.
   The defense will try and wreck havoc with their DL and a deep secondary, they just need to know who will start at what position.


RAMS
   Oh man FLEECED I TELL YOU, they must really like DT Braden Fisk, one of the strongest players at the combine and a human bowling ball, but they already have Kobie Turner to play 3T, well at least it will be a very good DL with depth, joining them will be first round pick DE Jared Verse who is also known for his strength against the run and pushing OLinemen backwards. Even with the trade, the Rams where able to pick up good talent in RB Blake Corum, S Kamren Kinchens, DT Tyler Davis and OC Beaux Limmer for great depth players. Grade: B+
   Time will tell if not drafting a OT this year will come to hunt aging Matthew Stafford, other than that this offense has enough weapons to put points on the board fast.
   I cant deny the Rams have a scary DL with the addition of the Seminole duo, there's a lot of power in that line, if the secondary can give them time, its going to be a nightmare for opposing QBs.


CARDINALS
   They got WR Marvin Harrison Jr. with their first pick, that would put a smile on any face especially Cardinals fans who their team really needed a WR and might still do, the WR room is that slim. They also needed pass rush and drafted EDGE Darius Robinson with their second first rounder, a successful first round. Second round got even better starting by robing the Falcons then preceding to plug a hole with CB Max Melton, bolster their respective positional groups with RB Trey Benson and OT Isaiah Adams. Some additional quality picks in birdman TE Tip Raiman and S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson who will definitely be competing in camp for snaps with the starters or at least be special teams bodies. Grade: A
   Its not going to be an easy year for Kyler Murray, he might be fighting to retain his job next year, the OL looks shaky and there's not enough wideouts to throw to, injuries might derail this team very fast.
   The defense is lacking talent and will try to count on veteran players to keep things afloat while the rookies can contribute enough to have a fighting chance.


OVERALL: I just don't see the Cardinals doing something significant this year and it brings all this division down to a three headed race with the 49ers with a significant lead from the start.



AFC WEST

CHIEFS
   The Chiefs moved quite a bit at the draft but still retained the number of picks they started the day with, biggest move was for their biggest need and if they were aiming for speed at the WR spot they got it with Xavier Worthy, looking at their other picks it seems what the Chiefs are interested in is to keep Patrick Mahomes as clean in the pocket as possible by drafting three OLinemen, one of each position. Grade: A-
   Everybody knows you have to try and stop Mahomes to have a chance to win against this team but the Chiefs seem to know this as well be adding assets to the OL and RB rooms additionally getting massive speed at the WR group, if the Chiefs get an early lead they can just run heavy and deflate de opposing defense.
   They have a very good front seven that can pressure the QB which adds to the formula of getting ahead and just milk the clock, but the hole they have at CB might give opponents a chance, if they can find a way to make time to throw the ball consistently.


CHARGERS
   The Chargers had a draft they can be proud of, don't know if everything is going to work but its a good start to build the foundation fairly quick at least more so because their bottom half draft looks very promising. Solidifying the blindside with first rounder OT Joe Alt as priority #1 for new coach Jim Harbaugh that will probably mean he is interested to run the ball a lot as well. Obviously the Charges needed help at WR and got a rout running specialist in Ladd McConkey with their next pick, followed by Harbaughs LB Junior Colston who will possibly bring scheme familiarity and knowledge, bring in good depth for the defense in DT Justin Eboigbe and CB Cam Hart, just staking up RBs drafting Kimani Vidal and finishing filling up the WR group with their final two picks drafting Brenden Rice and another wolverine in Cornelius Johnson, it was a good haul this year. Grade: A
   Justin Herbert should be able to do something now that he will be better protected and he has some new guys to throw the ball to. The RBs group will have a melee battle to see who gets to play on gameday and this Harbaugh-led offense will probably run the ball significantly even with Herbert under center just like the Chiefs.
   The defense did not show up enough last year and this year might not change much at least not based on player personnel but maybe better coaching and scheming can rise this whole group enough to not have to get into shootouts every game.


BRONCOS
   The QB needy Broncos had no option but to draft one, unfortunately the only one left was the last promising QB on this draft which was Bo Nix, still you cant criticize a team that has no established QB to not pick someone at the position, even if Nix is not as talented as the rest picked before him he is still talented to maybe surprise the league, drafting him his buddy WR Troy Franklin should help. PIcking up defenders in EDGE Jonah Eliss and CB Kris Abrams-Draine fro depth is a good move. The Broncos bolster their RBs group by drafting bowling ball RB Audric Estime to form solid trio in the backfield. The lack of S help is concerning. Grade: B
   I will be very surprised to see a QB other than Nix start the season, mostly because there isn't any QB that has played under Sean Payton', so there isn't really an advantage for any QB. 
   The defense is solid at best, just a bit of a concern at SS and really no one to challenge Cade Stern for the job.


RAIDERS
   With the top 6 QBs taken before the Raiders pick, they went BPA and drafted TE Brock Bowers who isn't a bad pick but certainly wasn't a need. They followed with help at OL by picking mammoth C Jackson Powers-Jonhson who is listed as the starting RG, this would help him quicken his learning curve. Then they just drafted some guys I don't really know for the exception of Tommy Eichenberg who will most likely start on the bench. Grade: C
   The Raiders stood in place and said we got Gardner Minshew, were good, and that is a decision to say the least. They are very thin at WR so they will have to plan a scheme where Bowers and Michel Mayers are on the field most of the time, go 12 personnel and run the ball often with, oh wait, Josh Jacobs isn't here, well whoever looks better at camp behind a OL than need time to coordinate.
   Well at least the DL is good at worst, still they need to decide where Tyree Wilson is going to play and if he will pan out, the secondary has some things to figure out, but if they do, the Raiders will have half their problems solved.


OVERALL: The Raiders with QB woes, the Broncos with a rookie and a bunch of needs, only leaving the Chargers to keep up with the beast which are the Chiefs. Makes their dynasty look really similar to the Tom Brady led Patriots.



NFC EAST

EAGLES
   I was not a fan of tracking the Eagles moves at this years draft, they moved 8 times, just pure mayhem, started with 9 picks ended with 8 and an additional 2025 3rd rounder. Going up for Cooper DeJean cost them but was worth it and with all the other moves they made they more than recovered for that trade up. Him and Quinyon Mitchell along with the capital they added for next years draft is what makes this draft a success for the Eagles, their mid picks are promising players and good depth, the front office surely came to work this year or just had fun doing it, or both. Grade: A
   What will Jalen Hurts achieve with this offense? Playoffs should be a given, the only thing they should be worried about is if Cam Jurgens is able to fill in at C.
   The defense should improve as the season progresses, their porous secondary has the guys that should be able to give the front seven liberty to wreck havoc, unless the Safety tandem is not the right one, still it shouldn't result in a melt down until maybe the post season.


COWBOYS
   The Cowboys traded down in the first and didn't miss a beat taking OT Tyler Guyton which was a need and the compensation was very good, they used it to pick up OG Cooper Beebe who is right now slotted as the backup C which is a weak link on this OL. Marshawn Kneeland makes the Cowboys top half draft a very good one. Grade: A-
   If either Brock Hoffman or Cooper Beebe can fix the C spot, Dak Presscot should be good to go, another WR would have been good though, and a RB, and survive Guyton's learning curve.
   This defense can surely rush the QB no problem, its up to "all in " CBs DaRon Bland and Trevon Diggs to take advantage of hurried passes and turn them into turnovers.


GIANTS
   The Giants didn't have much capital to spend in this years draft and ended up with a good draft either way, it would have been better if they got a QB but instead got one of the three top WRs in this draft in Malik Nabers, well he can always learn the ropes of the NFL for a year until the Giants get him the right QB I guess. DBs Tyler Nubin and Andru Phillips come to try and solidify the secondary who needed the help, additions of freaky TE Theo Johnson and a change of pace RB in Tyrone Tracy Jr should help this offense at least run the ball. Grade: A-
   This offense looks like they want to be the Dolphins or Chiefs with lots of speed on the outside, a good enough OL and versatile RBs group, but where's the QB? I mean, maybe Daniel Jones can orchestrate this team but can he bail a struggling team with his arm? Their ceiling is the Dolphins, I cant envision in any way they being the Chiefs.
   If the secondary gets good enough to give the DL 3 second to get to the QB often, its all up to the offense to win them games.


COMMANDERS
   The Commanders with all its deficits on their roster had a very good draft, obviously starting with their first pick in QB Jayden Daniels, then they got one of the best 3T DTs in the draft in Jer'Zhan Newton followed by a trade down with the Eagles that gave them good value in return and still landed one of the better slot CB in Mike Sanristil which was a big need on this team. It didn't stop there, they followed it with my #2 ranked TE in Ben Sinnott, versatile OT/OG Brandon Coleman and a promising slot guy in WR Luke McCaffrey, finishing their draft by picking with a good prospect rusher in EDGE Javontae Jean-Baptiste. Even with this haul, the Commanders are still to deep in a hole to be considered a good team but if they can develop this years draft and have a similar one next year, they might be a favorite to flip the table and go last to first. Grade: A
   Priority for this team is the development of Daniels, they cant afford to finish with a similar results like the one Anthony Richardson ended up having last year, with his tendencies in college to scramble too often, he will be battling an uphill battle playing behind an average OL and new scheme, but fortunately he will have a good WR room and reliable veteran RB and TE he can lean on.
   The front seven has been the Commanders bread an butter for some years now but have lost their rushing prowess by trading away Montez Sweat and Chase Young. They should be capable of shutting down the run game at will, but with big questions at CB and missing big names at EDGE, its going to be tough for them to keep games close.


OVERALL: The Giants will most probably start the rebuild, the Commanders seem to have started the rebuild and the Cowboys are definitely not all in. The Eagles should soar through this division.


   My early ranking list, based on season matchups and overall team strength:

1             RAVENS 

2             CHIEFS

3             49ERS

4             JETS

5             EAGLES

6             LIONS

7             PACKERS

8             FALCONS

9             BENGALS

10           DOLPHINS

11           BROWNS

12           TEXANS

13           BILLS

14           RAMS

15           BEARS

16           CHARGERS

17           BUCCANEERS

18           STEELERS

19           SEAHAWKS

20           PANTHERS

21           JAGUARS

22           SAINTS

23           COWBOYS

24           COLTS

25           TITANS

26           PATRIOTS

27           CARDINALS

28           VIKINGS

29           COMMANDERS

30           BRONCOS

31           GIANTS

32           RAIDERS


   I can crack my head nitpicking and moving this list around, but basically this is what I expect, teams ranked from 1 though 12 are who I expect make it to the playoffs. Teams 13 through 17 I expect to be in the mix. Teams 18 through 22, I expect to die hard. Lastly, teams 23 and below I don't have high hopes for them. Of course this changes with injuries, but what makes guys like me look stupid are falling and rising players, there's always that one guy no one expects to shine or bust, other than some football expert or Bob the couch potato, those players are what makes you stick to the screen or makes you buy more TVs each year, you know who you are.