What is on Ryan Poles mind? At the end of the day it's all on him to decide how to improve the Chicago Bears, he has a vast quantity of assets to do so with enough salary cap and the all coveted 1st overall pick of the 2024 draft which isn't even the teams pick, he has good options on the table where if he makes the right moves he can get the Bears organization to take a big jump in competition, or wiff completley which would be so Bears at this point.
Poles first decision was to stick with Matt Eberflus as his coach for next season which is a big one, he most likely has gone all in with this decision, if Eberflus fails as a coach so does Poles as a GM and would mean both losing their jobs. This first step for the 2024 season is a similar one the Bears organization has opted before, keeping the HC and letting QBs or GMs go or vice versa but never a clean sweep on all three positions. The firing on Luke Getsy and most of the offensive personnel was a no brainer. To change this sequence, I believe this move is a two year gig at least to get it right which would give time for the new offensive side of the staff to gel, with a new QB or the one that is already in the building. Things would have to get very ugly to cut everything short and start doing the same old thing once more, which obviously would not be ideal.
Now for the QB position, it's not an easy decision to take for a GM when having to choose between a raw but talented locker room leader at QB and the 1st overall pick to grab a high profile franchise potential QB while being on a short leash to get positive results fast. Justin Fields does not have the numbers to make a case for himself to stay as the Bears QB, he got nowhere with Getsy with no clear progression as a QB, it was obvious in many games that Getsy wasn't a good play caller and didnt have a well placed game plan more often than not, even with Fields struggling with his own stuff, Getsy just made it worse and help little to nothing on Fields development. So the question now is if Fields showed enough raw talent and poise to convince Poles and Eberflus to believe he just needs a real OC and some more help on offense to make the big leap many Bears fans believe he can take. I'm a Fields believer but I would be lying if I said I don't see the benefits of going QB with the 1st pick, because that is what you do when you can, you pick a QB until you hit on the right one. I don't want to be wrong, I have followed this team enough to know how much a good QB would mean to this team, I do believe Fields can be better and be that QB. Opting to pick up Fields 5th year would cement the QB decision, not picking it up doesn't say otherwise but does tell that drafting one is a real possibility.
Poles has managed in his two drafts as the Bears GM to have 10+ picks on each draft which is always good to have, more chances of hitting on late bloomers, but it hasn't really gone that way exactly. Poles is very likely having good results drafting with his high picks on round 1 and 2, but after those rounds he has been very average. Kyler Gordon, Jaquan Brisker, Darnell Wright and Gervon Dexter have been good to great picks and all selected on the first 2 rounds, Poles late round hits include Braxton Jones and maybe Roschon Johnson and Terrell Smith that are still wait and see, but the others are situational players at best. These results are at best good results but this tells me two things,
1. Poles needs more chances to hit on players and the Bears are still a tad behind at the homegrown development department resulted from some of the trade ups from the Ryan Pace era, Bears would benefit of staying in course and really continue building through the draft.
2. The Bears need to get the right coaches in the building because you can draft 20 players but if you can't coach them up you will never have a really good draft, more of Poles picks could be better picks if there was a better game plan in place for these players.
My first point is what makes me think that the best option for Poles is to trade back and add more picks to this years draft where he "only" has 6 picks, even if 2 of those are first rounders. I'm really waiting and expecting Ian Cunningham to get signed as a GM on some other team which would give Poles one more pick this year. Even if Cunningham is an important presence for Poles in the decision making of bulding up this team, he is deemed to leave sooner rather than later. Other way Poles gets more draft ammo? Trading Fields, for nothing less than a first rounder or 2 seconds, anything less than that wont help fight off my depresion fast enough.
So with all of this said, if Poles ends thinking as I do and decides to trade back, who could be a REAL trade partner for the 1st pick if the Bears decide to give it away to another team for a chance of a franchise QB,
Which teams are QB hungry?
2 - Washington - SHOULD, although I don't see them as a possible trade partner. Sam Howell has that gunslinger in him but has had too many turnovers, not enough wins and even getting benched a few games while the team deciding to trade some defensive starts away shows that maybe the team is not convinced to stick with him. It will all depend on the new regime of coaching that most probably will come next season. They can sit still and draft the QB that drops be it Williams or Maye. If they decide to stick with Howell they could be a trade partner for someone else as the Commanders are very possible on rebuild mode. It would be nice for them trade with the Bears and give the second round pick back they received on the Montez Sweat trade.
3 - New England - YES and is a very possible candidate to trade up, Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe have been benched between them too many times, its obvious at this point that they are not it in New England. There is a possibility that they trade with Washington if they don't really care for a specific QB and if the Commanders really need to load the team right now. Other route the Patriots can go is drafting someone like Michael Penix or Jayden Daniels.
4 - Arizona - NO, it's not because Kyler Murray is that good but he is definitely an above average QB at least, but what I have read is that his contract makes it very hard for the Cardinal to move from him at least next year. Would they be open to trade down?
5 - LA Chargers - NO, its Justin Herbert's team. I would consider them to stay put and pick whoever they consider a need.
6 - NY Giants - YES, I would consider a possible candidate. They can't fool themselves anymore with Daniel Jones and I believe they already are out in trying to make it work with him. Tommy DeVito is a good story but not the future and Tyrod Taylor is a great backup. They have some established young pieces in their team and could try to solidify the team with one of this years franchise caliber rookie QBs by trading up, but how far up would they be willing to go? They got enough ammo to create a good package of picks, maybe add Dexter Lawrence to the deal.
7 - Tennessee - DOUBTFUL, they started rolling with Will Levis and showed promise, Titans will probably try and build the team around him.
8 - Atlanta - YES, they should do everything possible to upgrade the position as soon as possible. Desmond Ridder has done too little to be regarded a starting caliber QB and Taylor Heinicke should be considered more than a good backup. Their roster will need bodies next year but the offense will still count with their OL, RBs, WR1 and TE1 additional to almost every starter on their defense, having an upgrade at QB to take advantage of these weapons should be important.
10 - NY JETS - DOUBTFUL, they don't have enough ammo of picks so they will roll with Aaron Rodgers until he cant roll anymore.
11 - Minnesota - POSSIBLY, they need a QB but I have no idea what they are going to try to do this offseason with Kirk Cousins hitting Free Agency, they are not loaded of picks and their defense is also diminishing due to players hitting FA, so I would be surprised if they go up the draft board but they are sure to be a QB needy team.
12 - Denver - POSSIBLY they have a similar situation than the Vikings have with the difference that the Broncos have a much better established defense and they are making the QB problem by not wanting Russell Wilson anymore, if they get rid of him then they need a QB and they don't have the ammo of picks to go too high on the draft board to choose the one they would want.
13 - Las Vegas - SHOULD, Aidan O'Connell help win enough games to have the Raiders at the middle of the pack with the help of a good enough defense performance especially from Maxx Crosby. I could see them limiting the pick count for a trade up if they package Crosby or Davante Adams but I believe they will roll with O'Connell and Jimmy Garoppolo one more year before punching the rebuild button.
14 - New Orleans - DOUBTFUL, they are very thin in draft picks and Derek Carr still has some left in the tank, it's not that they can't get better but they can wait.
15 - Indianapolis - NO, they still need to evaluate Anthony Richardson.
16 - Seattle - DOUBTFUL, same situation than the Saints with Geno Smith.
17 - Jacksonville - NO, it's still Trevon Lawrence's team.
18 - Cincinnati - NO, its Joe Burrow's team.
The other teams are playoff teams and those rarely need QB help, I would only consider the Bucs with Baker Mayfield hitting FA next season but the Bucs are very near of entering a rebuild state.
In summary, the best candidates are the Patriots, Giants and Falcons. Patriots would be my favorite trade partner to have a shot at still getting Marvin Harrison Jr. If trading with the Giants or Falcons, I would expect the biggest haul of the century, still be able to add Malik Nabers or Romeo Odunze on the trade down and still have the 9th overall to get even more picks depending on how the team looks once the first wave of FA ends before the draft, that sounds like a bright future.
Picture this, as of right now, what Oline is going to protect Caleb Williams in New England or New York? Atlanta is the most complete team that could benefit a young QB, but Atlanta is also the furthest team from the 1rd pick which means that they would have to give more assets to get there. I never thought the Panthers would end up being the worst team at the end of the year, a team with a good defense that loaded up at receiver and had a decent Oline at worst but somehow it didn't work and Bryce Young, a Mahomes compared QB, had little to do on a dysfunctional team. This could very well happen again if the Bears fleece the "right" team and Williams, another Mahomes compared QB, isn't this year's C.J. Stroud who elevated a very average Texans team, you just really don't know which QB your getting or if you have the right personnel in place to make it work, so get the coaches right so you can get the players right.
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