sábado, 13 de abril de 2024

2024 Draft prospects

    I went lighter this year with the number of players I watched to a total of 156 prospects, I still have time to watch more, got extra time I didn't expect to have but need to concentrate on other stuff and can always keep watching other players if some pop up that interest me. With the Bears slim in picks this year, I really don't think the players they end up picking wont be include on this list.

QBs

NAMESCHOOLRD
Caleb WilliamsUSC1
Drake MayeNorth Carolina1
Jayden DanielsLSU1-2
Michael PenixWashington1-2
Bo NixOregon2-3
J.J. McCarthyMichigan2-3
Jordan TravisFlorida State3
Michael PrattTulane3-4
Joe MiltonTennessee5
Spencer RattlerSouth Carolina5


   Its a close call between Williams and Maye, even so the Bears should draft Williams, I am of the people that do place importance in size and Williams is dangerously close to being not ideal in that regard and one can argue he could be classified as as small QB. Still, he does make it work better that last years smallish QB Bryce Young, both Young and Williams scrambled a lot but the difference I saw is that when Young ran and got rid of the ball it was often to wide open receivers and did it with limited pressure when throwing the ball, while Williams on the other hand often threated the needle with his passes on the move with defenders in close pursuit, Williams does have the Aaron Rodgers vibe when buying time and slinging the ball to a perfect spot. Maye is the perfect specimen of QB with great size, arm and enough legs to make defenses pay attention or suffer the consequences, still his throwing talent is not at Williams level of accuracy and off script shenanigan's, coaching could take him even further than where Williams could be talentwise but having the right coach in place is were I prefer the Bears to pick Williams and not Maye, I don't trust the Bears to coach up a QB, Williams is close to being an established QB than Maye, not saying Williams is perfect but he is closer to a finished product and more polished than Maye who could end up being the best QB in this draft in time or average if he is pushed the wrong way. Daniels and Penix showed great promise in college but have limitations that they need to resolve to be considered slam dunks at the pros, Nix and McCarthy have shown flashed of great QBing but their offensive schemes in college limited them and hide their true potential/ceiling which makes them a toss up. Travis is my favorite underdog QB in this draft, limited in arm power but can throw really good accurate passes in the pocket or on the move, I see his floor as good backup in the NFL. Milton is such a raw freak of nature, really fun project player.

Surprise pick: Anything other than QB at #1
OK pick: Maye at #1
Expected pick: Caleb Williams at #1


RBs

NAMESCHOOLRD
Jonathon BrooksTexas1-2
MarShawn LloydUSC2
Isaiah DavisSouth Dakota State2-3
Braelon AllenWisconsin2-3
Will ShipleyClemson2-3
Trey BensonFlorida State3
Ray DavisKentucky3-4
Blake CorumMichigan3-4
Daijun EdwardsGeorgia3-4
Jase McClellanAlabama3-4
Dillon JohnsonWashington4
George HolaniBoise State4
Bucky IrvingOregon4
Jaylen WrightTennessee4
Emani BaileyTCU4-5
Jawhar JordanLouisville4-5
Kendall MiltonGeorgia4-5
Isaac GuerendoLouisville5
Carson SteeleUCLA6
Audric EstimeNotre Dame6
Tyrone Tracy Jr.Purdue6

   I didn't see any dominant freak RB this year but Brooks was the one that got my attention the most, sadly he ended getting injured and its a wait and see if he can come back whole. Lloyd and Isaiah Davis, two very different backs, surprised me with their individual skillsets and expect good primary roles from them. Last year Davone Achane was a back I didn't expect that would be such a difference maker in the NFL and I'm wondering if Ray Davis, Corum or Bailey could be this years surprise.

Suprise pick: MarShawn Lloyd in the 3rd. Blake Corum in the 4th
OK pick: Trade down from #9, Bailey in the 5th.
Expected pick: No RB drafted.


WRs

NAMESCHOOLRD
Marvin Harrison Jr.Ohio State1
Rome OdunzeWashigton1
Malik NabersLSU1
Xavier LegetteSouth Carolina1-2
Brian Thomas Jr.LSU1-2
Ja'Lynn PolkWashington2
Xavier WorthyTexas2
Troy FranklinOregon2
Ladd McConkeyGeorgia2-3
Keon ColemanFlorida State2-3
Johnny WilsonFlorida State2-3
Adonai MitchellTexas3
Malik WashigtonVirginia3-4
Jamari ThrashLouisville3-4
Ricky PearsallFlorida4
Malachi CorleyWestern Kentucky4
Tez WalkerNorth Carolina4
Jermain BurtonAlabama4
Brenden RiceUSC4
Roman WilsonMichigan5
Jalen McMillanWashington6-5

   I moved this list a lot and its easily the most debatable position group this year, but want cant be debated is that this is a really good receiver class, bunch of talent in every shape and form. Harrison is the complete package and should be a plug and play player in any team. Odunze is very close to being the same specimen as Harrison and should be an automatic upgrade in almost any team. Nabers is a top field stretcher and will increase the offensive horsepower of any team. Legette and Thomas Jr. don't come with the same game history as the previous guys but have size and speed to be considered big threats. There's reliable guys like Polk and Franklin to be considered as solid WR2s and there's mismatching guys like Worthy and McConkey that can run circles on defenders with demonic speed and crisp route running respectively. Coleman and Wilson have rare bled of skills and physical talent and can punish defenses in the slot. Mitchell has a ways to go to see if he can pan out but oozes physical traits with great size and speed. There's somethin that separates a player from the other, but every player in this list has the talent to make a team better. The Bears have a duo of vet receivers set for their rookie QB, but after them it dips significantly in talent and experience which makes it a very thin positional group, picking one or even possibly two in this list would insure any bad luck this group could suffer. If I have to choose a type of receiver, I would go with Odunze over Nabers, I respect his speed but Odunze has enough of it and on top of that has size and talent to go for the ball which the Bears could use more of.

Surprise pick: Drafting Harrison #1 or going up from #9.
OK pick: trade down from #9, pick Legette in the 2nd, Washington or Thrash in the 3th.
Expected pick: Odunze at #9.


TEs

NAMESCHOOLRD
Brock BowersGeorgia1
Ben SinnottKansas State1
Jared WileyTCU2-3
Jaheim BellFlorida State2-3
Theo JohnsonPenn Sate2-3
Ja'Tavion SandersTexas3-4
Cade StoverOhio State4
Tanner McLachlanArizona4-5
Brevyn Spann-FordMinnesota4-5
Erick All Jr.Iowa5

   Everybody talks about Bowers being the best TE of this years class and rightly so, but I'm a bit surprised there isn't much talk about Sinnott being the close second from my perspective. There is a very good group of mixed talent, some overall good TEs like Bowers and Sinnott, some better at receiver than blockers like Wiley and Sanders, some better blockers than receivers like Stover, Spann-Ford and McLachlan, then there's raw freaks like only Penn State can create for NFL teams to mold like Theo Jonson and swiss army knifes like Jaheim Bell. The Bears are in a good spot with Cole Kmet getting better each year while adding Gerald Everett to have good depth, still  it wouldn't hurt if they can add one more guy from this list, Shane Waldon supposedly covets TEs in his game plan

Surprise pick: Bowers with the #9.
OK pick: Stover or McLachlan in the 4th. Trade down from #9, Sinnott in the 2nd or Bell in the 3th.
Expected pick: No TE drafted.


OTs

NAMESCHOOLRDPOS
Joe AltNotre Dame1LT
Tyler GuytonOklahoma1RT
J.C. LathamAlabama1RT
Amarius MimsGeorgia1-2RT
Troy FautanuWashington1-2LT
Graham BartonDuke2LT
Taliese FuagaOregon State2RT
Olumuyiwa FashanuPenn State2LT
Jordan MorganArizona3-4LT
Patrick PaulHouston3-4LT
Blake FisherNotre Dame3-4RT
Dominic PuniKansas State4-5LT
Kingsley SuamataiaBYU5LT
Roger RosengartenWashington5RT

   Kind of funny to see the opinions on Braxton Jones being mid and might getting replaced if Joe Alt is available with the #9 pick, who definitely is the most prepared LT in this years class. This conversation isn't new for Bears fans, I still remember when Charles Leno Jr. was considered mid, and is, and still be serviceable, so much that the Commanders extended him, Leno had more years experience than Jones when these talks started to surface in regard of Leno's talent, I believe that Jones still has time to prove he can get better, but if Ryan Poles wants to go with Alt if he falls, I wouldn't blame him for pulling the trigger and solidify the T position with two prime picks at the position, but its far from a need comparing the state of the T position compared to for example the WR or DL rooms, even IOL could be debated to be on the table for this high a pick. There are other options down the road but few played LT in college, guys like Guyton, Latham and Mims are freaks of nature but played RT, Barton and Fuaga are fierce but might be even better at G. There's a lot of praise going to Fashanu but I personally don't see it as a slam dunk player, he is my Broderick Jones comparison from last year, so for me the next best LT would be Fautanu who is seen by some as a better G prospect, so Alt is going to have huge value in this draft in my opinion.

Surprise pick: Alt with the #9.
OK pick: Trade down from #9, Blake Fisher in the 4th.
Expected pick: No T drafted.


OGs

NAMESCHOOLRD
Cooper BeebeKansas State2
Brandon ColemanTCU2-3
Christian MahoganyBoston College3
Zack ZinterMichigan3-4
Christian HaynesConneticut4
Mason McCormickSouth Dakota St5
Layden RobinsonTexas A&M5
Isaiah AdamsIllinois6

   Not much of a G group, but considering some of the T will most probably convert to G by their respected teams that drafted them, its not as bad a group. Beebe and Mahogany are your typical mauling G's while Coleman gives you flexibility to play T in a pinch or agility as a very good pulling G, still you cant go wrong with Zinter, Haynes or McCormick that can really help give a team great depth at least. The Bears payed quite a bit for insurance at G getting Ryan Bates from the Bills, but is much needed help with the history of uncertainty from Teven Jenkins and Nate Davis, trying to get one more G wouldn't hurt.

Surprise pick: Going up for a G in the 2nd like Beebe or Coleman.
OK pick: Trade back from #9,  Mahogany in the 3rd.
Expected pick: NO G drafted.


OCs

NAMESCHOOLRD
Jackson Powers-JohnsonOregon1-2
Zach FrazierWest Virginia2
Tanor BortoliniWisconsin3
Sedrick Van PranGeorgia3
Hunter NourzadPenn State4
Beaux LimmerArkansas5

   There is good word from experts for this years C group, JPJ rose to be at the top of many ranking lists and I don't blame them, the guy impacts with his size and power while Frazier doesn't fall far behind in those categories and is considered a mauling player as well, after these 2 the list takes a bit of a dip but I like Bortolini as a improving player that can reach pro ready status sooner rather than later. Van Pran was considered for a long time to be the favorite, but doesn't display the same dominance the first two have and might be too close to his ceiling which is good enough for the pros. Nourzad and Limmer have been praised and talked about to be pro ready, I believe they would benefit being backups to start their careers. The Bears would benefit by drafting one of these guys, signing FA Shelton Coleman was a good move to have him as an insurance player, but I worry going in to the season once more with two somewhat unproven/average veteran Cs.

Surprise pick: Trade down from #9, JPJ in the 1st.
OK pick: Trade down from #9, Frazier in the 2nd.
Expected pick: Bortolini in the 4th.


DTs

NAMESCHOOLRD
Jer'Zhan NewtonIllinois1
Byron MurphyTexas1-2
Michael Hall Jr.Ohio State1-2
Kris JenkinsMichigan2-3
Brandon DorlusOregon2-3
Ruke OrhorhoroClemson3
Tvondre SweatTexas3
Braden FiskeFlorida State3-4
Mekhi WingoLSU3-4
McKinnley JacksonMississippi State4
Maason SmithLSU4-5
Leonard Taylor IIIMiami5

   Straight to the chase, there's 3 guys I believe are 3T wreckers in Newton, Murphy and Hall Jr. and none of them come as an easy pick to me. There's a lot of talk coming out recently where Murphy comes as the best 3T prospect, I don't like Murphy as much as the other two, I do see he is capable of mass disruption, but I just don't see it as often as I would like, even the data says otherwise, but this is my list and its what I perceived in my small sample size of "film watching". Newton I do see giving maximum effort every play but the injury he had does concern me as Poles takes these things greatly into consideration. Hall I see more as a consistent disruptor than Murphy but his attitude issues on and off the field I do see as an important factor to drafting a player and I do believe Poles does as well, still there is great talent in his play style. Jenkins comes close but he is more physical than technical, still he can learn and be a beast. Dorlus is a tweener and a very good one that some team can have fun with him by moving him around. Orhorhoro is raw and can go really far if he can be well coached. Sweat is your starting NT to target if you need one. Fiske and Wingo can be very good depth and situational pass rushers.

Surprise pick: Newton with the #9. Trade down from the #9, Sweat in the 2nd.
OK pick: Fiske in the 4th.
Expected pick: Dorlus or Orhorhoro in the 3rd.


EDGEs

NAMESCHOOLRD
Dallas TurnerAlabama1
Jared VerseFlorida St.1
Laiatu LatuUCLA1
Darious RobinsonMissouri1-2
Chop RobinsonPenn St.1-2
Bralen TriceWashington2
Chris BraswellAlabama2-3
Adisa IsaacPenn St.3
Marshawn KneelandWestern Michigan3-4
Jonah EllissUtah4-5
Austin BookerKansas5

   You can shuffle Turner, Verse and Latu as you please, you can nitpick a bunch of things from them and get an excuse to who should be first on the list. I like Verse more than the other two, but Turner is younger and is a freaky athlete that has a higher ceiling, but I see him playing more in a two stance which is not what the Bears would play him. Both Robinson's couldn't be more different in their speed and size which makes them have different skillsets, but come up with the same results which is constant pressure. Trice is more of a 5T but dominates the LOS. Braswell and Isaac are very intriguing players with high motor and never quit mentality.

Surprise pick: Latu with the #9 pick.
OK pick: Verse with the #9 pick.
Expected pick: Braswell or Isaac in the 3rd.


LBs

NAMESCHOOLRD
Cedric GrayNorth Carolina2
Payton WilsonNorth Carolina State2
Edgerrin CooperTexas A&M2-3
Ty'Ron HopperMissouri3-4
Tommy EichenbergOhio State4
Junior ColsonMichigan4
Jaylan FordTexas4-5
Curtis JacobsPenn State5
Jeremiah Trotter Jr.Clemson5
Tevin WallaceKentucky5-6
Tyrice KnightUTEP6
James WilliamsMiami6

   Hmm second year I'm not a fan of the LB group, don't know if its because the Bears don't really need one or its because there isn't really a dominant one like the LBs of the early 2000s. Wilson is the physical freak but I see Gray more of a football player like Eicheberg and Colston but they are a bit slower. Cooper and Hopper are fun players with different skillsets, Cooper is more of a blitzer while Hopper is better at coverage.

Surprise pick: Any LB drafted.
OK pick: Trade back from #9, Hopper in the 5th.
Expected pick: No LB drafted.


CBs

NAMESCHOOLRD
Terrion ArnoldAlabama1
T.J. TampaIowa State1
Cooper DeJeanIowa1-2
Kool-Aid McKinstryAlabama1-2
Quinyon MitchellToledo2
Renardo GreenFlorida State2
Nate WigginsClemson2
Cam HartNotre Dame2-3
Kamari LassiterGeorgia2-3
Khyree JacksonOregon3
Mike SainristilMichigan3
Kris Abrams-DrainMissouri3-4
Ennis Rakestraw Jr.Missouri3-4
Max MeltonRutgers3-4
D.J. JamesAuburn3-4
Kalen KingPenn State4
Andru PhillipsKentucky4
Jarrian JonesFlorida State4
Caelen CarsonWake Forest4-5
Johnny DixonPenn State5
Josh NewtonTCU5

   Good pool of corners this year, Arnold is the main riser in rankings, I like his overall skillset to be able to cover, press and tackle. Tampa is not a big favorite for many but I do see a complete packages similar to Arnold. DeJean is easy to like but definitely as the best nickle in this draft class, I can see him even at SS. Mitchell as the small school favorite is understandable with his size and numbers he put in college, how much will it translate to the pros immediately? Green and Wiggins are very good corners with different body structure, both can start in the NFL. Hart and Jackson are the big mismatch corners that can definitely play day one. Next best nickle would be Sainristil, small but packs a punch and can go with the best of them. A lot of quality back up players in the rest of this list, the Bears have no immediate need at this position, if they can rack up more draft picks its never a bad idea to have as many quality backup corners as you can in todays NFL.

Surprise pick: Any CB drafted in day 1 or 2.
OK pick: Trade back from #9, Phillips in the 5th
Expected pick: No CB drafted.


Ss

NAMESCHOOLRD
Tyler NubinMinnesota2
Beau BradeMaryland2-3
Kamren KinchensMiami3
Malik MustaphaWake Forest3-4
Tykee SmithGeorgia3-4
Javon BullardGeorgia4
Calen BullockUSC4
Darion Taylor-DemersonTexas Tech4-5
Jaden HicksWashington St4-5
Cole BishopUtah5

   There is some talent in this years safety pool, but not exactly what I would assume would fill the FS position for the Bears which is not a big need with the addition of Kevin Byard. Nubin is the closest thing to a centerfielder than can tackle but plays better near the LOS. Brade and Mustapha are a hybrid nickle/safety type that has value if the play design has a specific role for them. Kinchens can play even with his limited physical skills, he is a true football player. Smith displays love for contact and is always around the ball, a very intriguing SS. Bullard and Bullock are FS that have very questionable tackling ability. Taylor-Demerson and Hicks are headhunters that would benefit improving their cover skills. Bishop I just didn't understand his role on the field, was everywhere but didn't do much consistently.

Surprise pick: Trade back from #9, Nubin in the 2nd.
OK pick: Trade back from #9. Bullard in the 4th or Taylor-Demerson in the 5th.
Expected pick: No S drafted.


   This draft for the Bears will be dictated once they decide what to do with the #9 pick, it doesn't help me decide what I would like them to do with the next picks but it goes something like this, in order of favoritism,

Pick #1 - QB
Pick #9 - WR or EDGE or DT
Pick #75 - WR/TE or DT or  EDGE
Pick #122 - C

   I see or prefer a scenario where they go double dipping at receiver, be it two WR or one and a TE while sacrificing depth at DL due to the talent I presume will be left, I believe there is better value to find at a receiver position than DL further down the draft board, if Poles manages to pull a 2nd rounder out of his ass then I would like him to get DL help, be it EDGE or DT preferably a 3T, but getting Sweat would be a scary rotation with Andrew Billings.
   What is almost written in stone is that Caleb Williams will be the Bears QB and will start immediately for the 2024 season, right now the offense is ready to roll with only the QB being the most important missing piece, Williams has a chance to start with an average at worst, solid at best offensive and defensive unit baring injuries, if Matt Eberflus and Shane Waldron play their cards correctly, Williams should be able to display being one of these generational promising QBs that he has been described to be, I expect the bumps and bruises at the beginning of the season but once November starts rolling around, with a good draft and a healthy team, I expect Williams to start showing he can make the team better, I don't care if he starts with 10+ picks at the beginning of the season as long as after mid season he starts showing better control of these turnovers and starts dominating final drives in games which would result in wins, everything points for him to statistically be able to put big numbers in yards, TDs and even INTs depending on the freedom Waldron puts on his plate in drop backs he takes by game, or he could even go run heavy and control Williams's snaps which would dip his stats, as long as it is for the best of his development so be it. This is far away from being the messy situation Justin Fields fell into and rightfully should not be repeated with Williams, time will tell if the QB, coaches and the team Poles puts in place where the right combination for success this time around.


lunes, 15 de enero de 2024

Offseason rants: Trading the 1st overall pick

   What is on Ryan Poles mind? At the end of the day it's all on him to decide how to improve the Chicago Bears, he has a vast quantity of assets to do so with enough salary cap and the all coveted 1st overall pick of the 2024 draft which isn't even the teams pick, he has good options on the table where if he makes the right moves he can get the Bears organization to take a big jump in competition, or wiff completley which would be so Bears at this point.

   Poles first decision was to stick with Matt Eberflus as his coach for next season which is a big one, he most likely has gone all in with this decision, if Eberflus fails as a coach so does Poles as a GM and would mean both losing their jobs. This first step for the 2024 season is a similar one the Bears organization has opted before, keeping the HC and letting QBs or GMs go or vice versa but never a clean sweep on all three positions. The firing on Luke Getsy and most of the offensive personnel was a no brainer. To change this sequence,  I believe this move is a two year gig at least to get it right which would give time for the new offensive side of the staff to gel, with a new QB or the one that is already in the building. Things would have to get very ugly to cut everything short and start doing the same old thing once more, which obviously would not be ideal.

   Now for the QB position, it's not an easy decision to take for a GM when having to choose between a raw but talented locker room leader at QB and the 1st overall pick to grab a high profile franchise potential QB while being on a short leash to get positive results fast. Justin Fields does not have the numbers to make a case for himself to stay as the Bears QB, he got nowhere with Getsy with no clear progression as a QB, it was obvious in many games that Getsy wasn't a good play caller and didnt have a well placed game plan more often than not, even with Fields struggling with his own stuff, Getsy just made it worse and help little to nothing on Fields development. So the question now is if Fields showed enough raw talent and poise to convince Poles and Eberflus to believe he just needs a real OC and some more help on offense to make the big leap many Bears fans believe he can take. I'm a Fields believer but I would be lying if I said I don't see the benefits of going QB with the 1st pick, because that is what you do when you can, you pick a QB until you hit on the right one. I don't want to be wrong, I have followed this team enough to know how much a good QB would mean to this team, I do believe Fields can be better and be that QB. Opting to pick up Fields 5th year would cement the QB decision, not picking it up doesn't say otherwise but does tell that drafting one is a real possibility.

   Poles has managed in his two drafts as the Bears GM to have 10+ picks on each draft which is always good to have, more chances of hitting on late bloomers, but it hasn't really gone that way exactly. Poles is very likely having good results drafting with his high picks on round 1 and 2, but after those rounds he has been very average. Kyler Gordon, Jaquan Brisker, Darnell Wright and Gervon Dexter have been good to great picks and all selected on the first 2 rounds, Poles late round hits include Braxton Jones and maybe Roschon Johnson and Terrell Smith that are still wait and see, but the others are situational players at best. These results are at best good results but this tells me two things,

1. Poles needs more chances to hit on players and the Bears are still a tad behind at the homegrown development department resulted from some of the trade ups from the Ryan Pace era, Bears would benefit of staying in course and really continue building through the draft.

2. The Bears need to get the right coaches in the building because you can draft 20 players but if you can't coach them up you will never have a really good draft, more of Poles picks could be better picks if there was a better game plan in place for these players.

   My first point is what makes me think that the best option for Poles is to trade back and add more picks to this years draft where he "only" has 6 picks, even if 2 of those are first rounders. I'm really waiting and expecting Ian Cunningham to get signed as a GM on some other team which would give Poles one more pick this year. Even if Cunningham is an important presence for Poles in the decision making of bulding up this team, he is deemed to leave sooner rather than later. Other way Poles gets more draft ammo? Trading Fields, for nothing less than a first rounder or 2 seconds, anything less than that wont help fight off my depresion fast enough.

   So with all of this said, if Poles ends thinking as I do and decides to trade back, who could be a REAL trade partner for the 1st pick if the Bears decide to give it away to another team for a chance of a franchise QB, 

Which teams are QB hungry?

2 - Washington - SHOULD, although I don't see them as a possible trade partner. Sam Howell has that gunslinger in him but has had too many turnovers, not enough wins and even getting benched a few games while the team deciding to trade some defensive starts away shows that maybe the team is not convinced to stick with him. It will all depend on the new regime of coaching that most probably will come next season. They can sit still and draft the QB that drops be it Williams or Maye. If they decide to stick with Howell they could be a trade partner for someone else as the Commanders are very possible on rebuild mode. It would be nice for them trade with the Bears and give the second round pick back they received on the Montez Sweat trade.

3 - New England - YES and is a very possible candidate to trade up, Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe have been benched between them too many times, its obvious at this point that they are not it in New England. There is a possibility that they trade with Washington if they don't really care for a specific QB and if the Commanders really need to load the team right now. Other route the Patriots can go is drafting someone like Michael Penix or Jayden Daniels. 

4 - Arizona - NO, it's not because Kyler Murray is that good but he is definitely an above average QB at least, but what I have read is that his contract makes it very hard for the Cardinal to move from him at least next year. Would they be open to trade down?

5 - LA Chargers - NO, its Justin Herbert's team. I would consider them to stay put and pick whoever they consider a need.

6 - NY Giants - YES, I would consider a possible candidate. They can't fool themselves anymore with Daniel Jones and I believe they already are out in trying to make it work with him. Tommy DeVito is a good story but not the future and Tyrod Taylor is a great backup. They have some established young pieces in their team and could try to solidify the team with one of this years franchise caliber rookie QBs by trading up, but how far up would they be willing to go? They got enough ammo to create a good package of picks, maybe add Dexter Lawrence to the deal.

7 - Tennessee - DOUBTFUL, they started rolling with Will Levis and showed promise, Titans will probably try and build the team around him.

8 - Atlanta - YES, they should do everything possible to upgrade the position as soon as possible. Desmond Ridder has done too little to be regarded a starting caliber QB and Taylor Heinicke should be considered more than a good backup. Their roster will need bodies next year but the offense will still count with their OL, RBs, WR1 and TE1 additional to almost every starter on their defense, having an upgrade at QB to take advantage of these weapons should be important.

10 - NY JETS - DOUBTFUL, they don't have enough ammo of picks so they will roll with Aaron Rodgers until he cant roll anymore.

11 - Minnesota - POSSIBLY, they need a QB but I have no idea what they are going to try to do this offseason with Kirk Cousins hitting Free Agency, they are not loaded of picks and their defense is also diminishing due to players hitting FA, so I would be surprised if they go up the draft board but they are sure to be a QB needy team.

12 - Denver - POSSIBLY they have a similar situation than the Vikings have with the difference that the Broncos have a much better established defense and they are making the QB problem by not wanting Russell Wilson anymore, if they get rid of him then they need a QB and they don't have the ammo of picks to go too high on the draft board to choose the one they would want.

13 - Las Vegas - SHOULD, Aidan O'Connell help win enough games to have the Raiders at the middle of the pack with the help of a good enough defense performance especially from Maxx Crosby. I could see them limiting the pick count for a trade up if they package Crosby or Davante Adams but I believe they will roll with O'Connell and Jimmy Garoppolo one more year before punching the rebuild button.

14 - New Orleans - DOUBTFUL, they are very thin in draft picks and Derek Carr still has some left in the tank, it's not that they can't get better but they can wait.

15 - Indianapolis - NO, they still need to evaluate Anthony Richardson.

16 - Seattle - DOUBTFUL, same situation than the Saints with Geno Smith.

17 - Jacksonville - NO, it's still Trevon Lawrence's team.

18 - Cincinnati - NO, its Joe Burrow's team.

   The other teams are playoff teams and those rarely need QB help, I would only consider the Bucs with Baker Mayfield hitting FA next season but the Bucs are very near of entering a rebuild state.

   In summary, the best candidates are the Patriots, Giants and Falcons. Patriots would be my favorite trade partner to have a shot at still getting Marvin Harrison Jr. If trading with the Giants or Falcons, I would expect the biggest haul of the century, still be able to add Malik Nabers or Romeo Odunze on the trade down and still have the 9th overall to get even more picks depending on how the team looks once the first wave of FA ends before the draft, that sounds like a bright future.

   Picture this, as of right now, what Oline is going to protect Caleb Williams in New England or New York? Atlanta is the most complete team that could benefit a young QB, but Atlanta is also the furthest team from the 1rd pick which means that they would have to give more assets to get there. I never thought the Panthers would end up being the worst team at the end of the year, a team with a good defense that loaded up at receiver and had a decent Oline at worst but somehow it didn't work and Bryce Young, a Mahomes compared QB, had little to do on a dysfunctional team. This could very well happen again if the Bears fleece the "right" team and Williams, another Mahomes compared QB, isn't this year's C.J. Stroud who elevated a very average Texans team, you just really don't know which QB your getting or if you have the right personnel in place to make it work, so get the coaches right so you can get the players right.

domingo, 7 de enero de 2024

2023 Bears current state

   There will be no more meaningful Chicago Bears football until September, they finished their season off by losing to the Packers showing they are still not where they need to give Bears fans what was once promised by Lovie Smith when signed as the coach for this team in 2004, since he was released of his duties, it feels like they cant do it and it just makes thing feel worse.

   So how do the Bears look for next season? Ryan Poles has big decisions to make and it start by taking one tomorrow, monday january 8, by firing HC Matt Eberflus and OC Luke Getsy. Getsy is a simple decision, he just didn't make the offense work, simple as that. I honestly waited until this last game to decide if I wanted Eberflus back, this game showed me that he could be good enough to be the coach, but I dont want good enough at the helm of things, I want a coach that not only gets respect from his players and personnel, I want someone that shows in game that he has control of things. Against the Packers on this last game, I didn't see a defense that was missing Jaylon Johnson, I saw a defense that got steamed rolled by lack of pressure and run stuffing which was the thing this defense should have improved on, it wasn't even a bend don't break defense, they were gushed for big gains by air and ground. It's one thing that the defense showed some improvement at the end of the year but what about the offense? What happened to the run game? What happened to Darnell Mooney? who somehow disappeared from this team. Then there is the trickling blame to how much blame does Justin Fields has on all this? Lets see how the team looks like with the players still under contract.

QB - Justin Fields, Tyson Bagent

   Fields processes the field slower that average and struggles to throw passes in rhythm with accuracy and timing which makes him hold the ball for too long which makes him propense of getting sacked, his footwork needs work to get consistent base to help him be more accurate in his throws and get the ball out quicker with more spiral. Cool, everybody knows he has flaws and that this are it, so why is he still so dangerous? Strong arm that places the ball with accuracy in deep throws, hard to bring down and can get outside the pocket and throw on the move with good vision and accuracy, can keep the ball and run with it, he is fast to get downfield and get chunk yards in the ground. I don't know how far he is from Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick or Josh Allen but he has the build and the same skill set and don't believe his is far from being as productive as these guys, I just believe he hasn't gotten placed in the correct situation to be as productive. Obviously I have no problem with the Bears sticking with him and continue to build around him.
   Bagent had his good chunk of live experience and did as well as any other backup the Bears have had the last few years where he can't come up with the win on the game he gets to go in due to the injury of the starting QB, then wins the next start then loses or just goes in decline the other next games he needs to play until the starter comes back. So, the Bears can draft someone with a higher pedigree than Bagent or bring a veteran, until the coaching and planning doesn't get better its going to be the same story.


RB - Khalil Hebert, Roshon Johnson, Travis Homer

   Again, I don't blame the players, I blame the scheme, the play calling and the lack of Oline depth and Center position. Herbert is a good rhythm running back with burst, Johnson started hot with some really angry running until he got concussed and then lighten the running a bit, the Bears would benefit of getting that bowling ball type of running from Johnson, not wishing him injuries though. Homer has been absent and really didn't bring much to this team. They would benefit of bringing some suddenes and speed to the backfield like when they had Tarik Cohen.


WR - D.J. Moore, Tyler Scott, Velus jones Jr.

   Poles his the jackpot with Moore who brought the best of Fields as a passer, but he hast been able to find his field stretcher in Velus and Scott. I don't see Poles resigning any receiver and will have to bring new players, a lot.


TE - Cole Kmet

   Kmet once more takes another step forward in his game, he was the most reliable ball catcher in the team, not as explosive as Moore though. I liked the Marcedes Lewis signing to try and help the run game but it wasn't enough, this will be another skill group Poles will need to bring more new players.


OL - Braxton Jones,Teven Jenkins, Cody Whitehair, Nate Davis, Darnell Wright, Larry Borom, Doug Kramer Jr., Ja'Tyre Carter

   The starting group was inconsistent due to lack of communication, but did have plenty of moments where they showed the ability of being a dominant unit, it need to get better at Center and have more players to compete and have depth at G and T. Cody Whitehair's and Larry Borom's time is up.


DL  - Montez Sweat, Andrew Billings, DeMarcus Walker, Gervon Dexter, Zacch Pickens, Dominique Robinson

   There is good talent in this unit, but it needs a bit more to really be sustainable and competitive against today's NFL teams, Poles got it right in bringing Sweat and the price paid was worth it.


LB - T.J. Edwards, Tremaine Edmunds, Jack Sanborn, Noah Sewell

   This unit will only get better with more time together and the DL getting more help.


CB - Tyrique Stevenson, Kyler Johnson, Terrel Smith, Jaylon Jones, Christian Matthews

   I didn't mention resigning anyone because I don't feel anybody brings a strong need to the team, until you get to Jaylon Johnson, who would keep a secondary a very solid unit. It still needs some depth but if Smith can improve like Gordon did, then I wouldn't worry much.

S - Eddie Jackson, Jaquan Brisker, Elijah Hicks, Quindell Johnson

   As I feared, Jackson regressing was a matter of time, I don't trust Brisker to be as impactful if there isn't someone like Jackson that can be counted to cover the back half of the field as he did the years before this one. There will be a strong need to find someone that can replace the skillset Jackson brought in his prime.


ST - Cairo Santos, Trenton Gill

   Santos is worth every penny and more, Gill's punt net yard isnt anything to brag about, competition at the punter spot would be ideal next season. Patrick Scales should play in Chicago until he doesn't want to play anymore.


   I expect Poles to bring new leadership and hit Free agency with commitment to build the last pieces needed to build a competitive playoff team for next year.

domingo, 1 de octubre de 2023

W2 & 3 Losses to Bucs and Chiefs: Bring in the clowns

    There is truly not much to say, the Bears are lost and do not have a team ready to compete, they are still trying to find players who can play whatever they are trying to play and showing an embarrassing performance every week.


   The offense wont click until Justin Fields finds his way if it ever happens, he isn't looking confident or comfortable behind an Oline that is missing three starters listed at the beginning of the season and was always missing an upgrade and need at Center, it doesn't matter if WRs get open or if the run game works, if Fields cant get back to what he showed last season and improve upon that, he should get people at the offices fired along with him and that is just NOT what I want.

Upside players: I don't feel anyone deserves to be placed here but Darnell Wright is playing better each game, still is costing the offense some plays. 

Downside players: Obvious players is Chase Claypool, his play and demeanor might just cost him his spot for this next game. Cole Kmet is just too average, needs to up his game. Justin Fields needs to feed D.J. Moore and Darnell Mooney the ball more and they need to catch it, Mooney has disappeared from this team and that is just inexcusable. 


   The strength of this defense was the back seven, it hasn't showed on games, thy are three starting secondary players down, its a mess and all this happens because the Bears cant pressure the QB, they cannot get near him as much as they need to help their backs make plays, the front four are playing decent run defense ill give them that but they cant get themselves out of the field because they are giving the QB too much time costing them 3rd downs resulting in more playing time and exhaustion which results in big running back just blast through them to end games. this is not good for the offense who are in need of more opportunities to fix their own mess.

Upside players: Its all about the rookies and watch how they make plays even if its not in a consistent basis, Gervon Dexter Jr., Tyrique Stevenson and Terrell Smith have shown some flashes. Protect Andrew Billings at all cost.

Downside players: Tremaine Edmunds is not the dominant LB I was hoping to see, he misses tackles and isn't helping get pressure, his coverage is ok but he is still isn't in synch with the other backs. Yannick Ngakoue is leaving the few QB sack opportunities get by him, add that he was brought to bring the speed to the line and it doesn't translate to the need the Bears needed at the EDGE position.


   The Bears have a lineup in front of them of teams that are struggling and have all the opportunity in the world to get back on track this season but they need answers RIGHT NOW against the Broncos. The offense needs the ball and Fields needs to let the ball go or go himself, wight now its not looking good, the secondary is too banged up which could result in less minutes for the offense with the ball, meaning that the offense will have to go toe to toe with the Broncos offense. All of this is to have a chance to win, honestly I just want to see a freaking spark go on in this team something to cheer for, I expected the losses at the beginning of the season, what is killing the vibe is the playing on the field which is just a joke to this point.

Useless predictions: 2023 Week 4 picks

   Missed last week but the one before was horrendous, needed the time out. Nothing really surprising these first weeks other than the Broncos still not good for whatever reason and now the Bears join them as an over rated team (thanks a lot for the unneeded doses of depression) the Cardinals and Rams are not bad as thought to be and Steelers not as good as thought to be. Other than that, everything seems right on schedule with Vikings and Chargers choking, Ravens getting hurt a lot and the favorites for the Super Bowl are still the Chiefs and Eagles. On to next week.

Last week: 1-12-2 (7%)

Season overall: 3-25-2 (10%)


Falcons at Jaguars (-3)    (O42.5)

   First international game of the season where I believe the Jaguars can use to bounce back from their subpar playing. Nothing against the Falcons but they are surviving with a one dimensional offense and strong defense, that is not a sustainable plan for success.


Dolphins (+2.5) at Bills    (O53.5)

   The Bills play sloppy but ooze talent that makes them uncover the sloppiness. The Dolphins are a freaking machine, they just need to protect general Tua at all cost and they will continue to play how they want.


Vikings (-4.5) at Carolina    (U46.5)

   Bryce Young is coming back so Carolina will continue struggling until they can protect him and he can get comfortable playing in the NFL. The Vikings need this game to build up on something for the future.


Commanders at Philadelphia (-9)    (O43)

   Commanders are playing average and their strength is the Dline, the Eagles are a power house and their strength is the OLine, this is already decided.


Bengals at Tennessee (+2.5)    (O41)

   The Bengals have shown to little to believe in them yet, they have all the talent to be a winning team but something is still off. The Titans are a question mark every game, they have enough talent and coaching to pull games off of their ass but just malfunction for no reason. Its anyone's game. 


LA Rams (PK) at Indianapolis    (U45.5)

   I like the Rams, a very young team that is very well coached, while Matt Stafford is protected this team has legit shots of adding on the win column. The Colts are still trying to get Anthony Richardson in sink, that is a hard task if he keeps getting injured.


Buccaneers at New Orleans (-3.5)    (O40)

   Both defenses are stingy, both offenses have good receivers, Carr is more reliable than Baker. If Carr plays I'm with the Saints.


Steelers (-2.5) at Texans    (O42)

   The Texans play hard and rookie C.J. Stroud is looking good, but they are very banged up and while the Steelers offense is struggling mightily, the defense is keeping them in the games.


Ravens at Cleveland (-2)    (O39)

   The Ravens are just to banged up to go against a though Browns defense, only chances the Ravens have is if Deshaun Watson gives them those chances.


Broncos (-3) at Chicago    (U46.5)

   the Broncos have always been good on paper but its unreal how they cant win, they go up against another team coming with high expectations going to this season and they have shown almost nothing to back that up.


Raiders at LA Chargers (-5)    (O48.5)

   Oh boy, Aidan O'Connell is starting for the Raiders, normally a rookie should struggle, this might still be the case even if O'Connell has been praise mightily in the offseason. The Chargers have the offense to burry the Raiders in points, can the defense do enough to be out of reach?


Patriots (+6) at Dallas    (U43.5)

   The Cowboys losing against the Cardinals tell me more about the Cardinals than the Cowboys, they are still a good team and should be just a slip. The Patriots are a solid team and will compete with anyone this season, they just don't have that big weapon make them a real contending candidate.


Cardinals at San Francisco (-14)   (O43.5)

   The Cardinals are not bad, obviously they have a weak roster but they play to their maximum potential, it wont matter against the niners unfortunately. 


Chiefs (-8.5) at NY Jets     (U41.5)

   Its a nightmare for the Jets, Zach Wilson is not looking the part and is bringing down the whole team with him, if the coaching staff cant find a solution fast they will lose the locker room.


Seahawks at NY Giants (+1)    (U47)

   The seahawks need all their starters to have a chance to win, they are too banged up. The Giants need more stable offensive plan to get Daniel Jones going.